2024-09-10-APEC-2024年亚太经合组织能源展望报告_344页_4mb

APEC Energy Overview 2024 Summary

Core Content

The APEC Energy Overview 2024 is an annual publication that highlights the energy situation across the 21 APEC economies, using data up to 2021. It outlines progress toward two key APEC energy goals:

1. Energy intensity improvement of 45% by 2035 (relative to 2005 baseline)
2. Doubling the share of modern renewables in the APEC energy mix by 2030 (relative to 2010 baseline)

The report also discusses the impact of the post-pandemic recovery on energy supply and demand, and includes detailed analyses of each APEC economy's energy trends, policies, and developments.

Main Goals and Progress

Energy Intensity Goal

• APEC-wide energy intensity improved by 27% from 2005 to 2021, with an additional 18% improvement needed to meet the 2035 target.
• If current trends continue, APEC is on track to achieve this goal.

Modern Renewables Goal

• Modern renewables accounted for 9.9% of APEC's final energy consumption in 2021, representing a 66% improvement from 2010.
• This means APEC is ahead of schedule to double the share of modern renewables by 2030.
• In the electricity mix, modern renewables accounted for 25.2% of total generation in 2021, up from 15.6% in 2010.

Key Trends in Energy Supply and Consumption

Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)

• APEC's TPES increased by 5.7% in 2021, reaching 362,051 PJ, with a total increase of over 19 exajoules since 2000.
• Renewables saw the fastest growth at 7.3%, but still represent a smaller share than fossil fuels.
• In 2021, the composition of TPES was:
  • Coal: 34.6%
  • Oil: 27.4%
  • Gas: 23.9%
  • Renewables: 8.3%
  • Others: 5.8%

Net Energy Imports

• APEC remains a net energy importer, but the proportion of net imports to TPES has been declining for over two decades.
• In 2021, net imports increased slightly, but remained well below the 2018 level.
• The US and APEC Southeast Asian economies have become net exporters, while China remains a net importer.

Total Final Consumption

• Total final consumption increased by 4.4% in 2021, reaching 233,850 PJ.
• Transport sector rebounded the most with a 7.3% increase, but still remained below pre-pandemic levels.
• Non-energy sector consumption increased by 4.8%, services by 4%, and industry by 3.5%.
• Residential consumption rose by 2.2% in 2021 due to increased economic activity at home.
• The composition of final consumption in 2021 was:
  • Industry: 33.4%
  • Transport: 25.4%
  • Residential: 16%
  • Non-energy: 12.4%
  • Commercial: 8.2%
  • Agricultural and other sectors: 4.6%

Energy Consumption by Product

• Electricity consumption increased by 7.2%, reaching 33.6% of total final consumption.
• Oil and gas consumption also increased, by 6.2% and 3% respectively.
• Coal consumption declined by 5.4%, continuing a long-term trend.
• Non-electricity renewables accounted for 4.3% of final energy consumption.

Energy Transition and Emissions

Power Sector

• APEC electricity generation reached 18,600 TWh in 2021, up by 6.4%.
• Renewables (solar and wind) saw the fastest growth at 25%.
• Thermal power generation (oil and coal) rebounded strongly, with oil increasing by 8.6% and coal by 8.1%.
• Nuclear electricity generation increased by 3.4%.
• Hydro and geothermal generation declined slightly, by 1.3% and 0.3%, respectively.

Emissions

• APEC CO₂ emissions increased by 4.8% in 2021, reversing the decline from 2020.
• This increase was driven by the rebound in energy consumption and economic activity, despite the fast growth of renewables.

Australia Chapter Summary

Energy Policies and Commitments

• Australia updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in June 2022, committing to a 43% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
• The country also pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, legislated under the Climate Change Act 2022.
• Australia aims to have 82% renewable generation by 2030.

Energy Supply and Consumption

• In 2021, Australia's total primary energy supply was 5,450 PJ, down 2.9% from 2020, with a 1,100 PJ reduction in production.
• Coal production fell for the third consecutive year, reaching 31% of the supply mix.
• Oil supply decreased by 4.3%, but remained the most prominent source.
• Natural gas supply fell by 1.7%, but is still used in the power sector and LNG exports.
• Renewables increased by 10.4%, now accounting for 8.4% of energy supply.

Key Energy Sources and Trends

• Australia is the fifth-largest global coal producer and seventh-largest natural gas producer.
• LNG exports have become a major contributor to Australia's economy, with the country accounting for 21% of global LNG exports in 2022.
• Uranium is a major export, with Australia holding the world's largest reserves.

Challenges and Opportunities

• High energy prices and geopolitical volatility have impacted energy consumption and investment.
• LNG exporters have significant market power, influencing gas prices and limiting new supply availability.
• The Australian Government has developed a Critical Minerals Strategy to support the growth of renewable energy and green industries, such as green steel.
• Electrification of industries is being incentivized due to the difficulty in securing affordable long-term gas supply.
• Renewable infrastructure and technological development are expected to require significant minerals like lithium and rare earth elements.

Conclusion

The APEC Energy Overview 2024 provides a comprehensive assessment of energy trends and policies across member economies, highlighting both progress and challenges in achieving the APEC energy goals. Australia, in particular, is at a pivotal point in its energy transition, with a strong focus on renewables, LNG exports, and mineral supply. The report underscores the importance of policy alignment, investment in infrastructure, and technological innovation in advancing APEC's energy objectives.