2018-作物前景与粮食形势（英文版）-5mb

CROP PROSPECTS and FOOD SITUATION Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of global and regional crop production and food security conditions for 2018, with a focus on countries requiring external assistance for food. It highlights the factors contributing to food insecurity, including conflicts, climate-related shocks, and economic downturns, and includes statistical data on cereal production, utilization, and stocks.

Main Points

Global Overview

• 39 countries globally require external assistance for food.
• Global cereal production in 2018 is forecast at 2,587.5 million tonnes, a 2.4% decrease from 2017.
• World wheat production is forecast at 721.8 million tonnes, a 4.6% decrease from 2017.
• World coarse grain production is forecast at 1,353.8 million tonnes, a 2.6% decrease from 2017.
• World rice production is forecast at 511.8 million tonnes, a 1.3% increase from 2017, reaching an all-time high.
• Global cereal utilization in 2018/19 is forecast at 2,648.5 million tonnes, with maize being the main driver of the increase.
• Global cereal stocks are projected to drop to a four-year low of 741.8 million tonnes, a 8.1% decrease from 2017/18.

Regional Highlights

Africa

• 31 countries in Africa require external assistance for food.
• Southern Africa experienced reduced cereal output due to unfavourable weather.
• East Africa saw improved production due to abundant rains, though localized flooding occurred.
• North Africa had an upturn in production due to favourable spring weather.
• West Africa is expected to revert to average harvest levels.
• Persistent conflicts and pastoral conditions continue to impact food security in several countries.

Asia

• 7 countries in Asia require external assistance for food.
• Near East and CIS Asia faced below-average cereal harvests due to rainfall deficits and conflicts.
• Far East saw a slight increase in cereal output, mainly due to higher paddy production.
• Syria had 6.5 million people food insecure and 4 million at risk.
• Yemen had 17.8 million people food insecure, a 5% increase from 2017.

Latin America and the Caribbean

• 1 country (Haiti) requires external assistance for food.
• Haiti saw a 386,050 people needing humanitarian assistance after Hurricane Matthew.

North America, Europe, and Oceania

• North America cereal production is forecast to increase slightly.
• Europe cereal production is forecast at a 7.9% decrease, with the European Union experiencing a 6.7% cut in wheat output.
• Oceania cereal production is forecast to remain slightly below average.

Key Countries Requiring External Assistance

Africa (31 countries)

• Burkina Faso: 950,000 people in need of food assistance due to localized production shortfalls.
• Chad: 990,000 people food insecure due to pastoral conditions and internal displacements.
• Central African Republic: 4.5 million IDPs and 176,000 refugees, with an Ebola outbreak reported.
• Djibouti: 197,000 people severely food insecure due to unfavourable rainy seasons.
• Eritrea: Economic constraints increase food insecurity.
• Ethiopia: 7.88 million people affected by drought.
• Malawi: 3.3 million people food insecure due to cereal output decline.
• Niger: 800,000 people in need of assistance due to dry conditions and conflict.
• Nigeria: 5.3 million people food insecure due to conflict and market disruptions.
• South Sudan: 6 million people severely food insecure due to conflict and economic constraints.
• Zimbabwe: 2.4 million people food insecure due to reduced cereal output and access issues.

Asia (7 countries)

• Afghanistan: 2.2 million people chronically food insecure, with 1.4 million at risk due to drought.
• Democratic People's Republic of Korea: Localized production shortfalls and economic downturn.
• Iraq: 800,000 people in need of food security assistance.
• Myanmar: 241,000 internally displaced due to conflict.
• Pakistan: 1.4 million Afghan refugees hosted, with localized cereal production shortfalls in Tharparkar and Sindh.
• Yemen: 17.8 million people food insecure due to conflict, poverty, and high prices.

Latin America and the Caribbean (1 country)

• Haiti: 386,050 people in need of assistance due to Hurricane Matthew impact.

Key Factors Affecting Food Security

• Conflict remains the dominant factor driving food insecurity.
• Climate-related shocks, such as droughts, floods, and unfavourable rainy seasons, have impacted production and access.
• Economic downturns and high food prices reduce purchasing power and increase food insecurity.
• Displacement of populations due to conflict and natural disasters strains host communities.
• Limited humanitarian access in certain regions exacerbates food shortages.

Terminology and Categorization

• Countries requiring external assistance are categorized based on the nature of their food crisis:
  • Exceptional shortfalls in aggregate food production/supplies
  • Widespread lack of access
  • Severe localized food insecurity

Conclusion

The report underscores the ongoing challenges in food security across various regions, primarily driven by conflict, climate shocks, and economic instability. It highlights the need for continued external assistance and emphasizes the importance of understanding the root causes of food insecurity to effectively plan and respond to crises.