2018-粮食与农业的未来——趋势与挑战（英文版）-7mb

The Future of Food and Agriculture: Trends and Challenges

Core Content

The Future of Food and Agriculture: Trends and Challenges report, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2017, outlines the major global trends and challenges affecting the food and agriculture sector. It emphasizes the need for transformative change to ensure food security, reduce poverty and inequality, and make agricultural systems sustainable.

Main Trends

• Population Growth and Urbanization:
  The world's population is projected to reach nearly 10 billion by 2050, with the majority of growth concentrated in Africa, South Asia, and urban areas. By 2050, two-thirds of the global population will live in urban areas.

  • Demographic Shifts: Low-income countries will see significant increases in the 15–24 age group, while other regions will experience aging populations.

• Economic Growth and Food Demand:
  Economic growth in low- and middle-income countries is expected to drive a shift in dietary patterns, with increased consumption of meat, fruits, and vegetables compared to cereals. This will require significant changes in agricultural output.

• Agricultural Productivity and Innovation:
  Agricultural productivity has been increasing, but growth rates have slowed, and the natural resource base is under pressure. Technological innovation and research are critical to improving productivity and sustainability.

• Climate Change and Natural Hazards:
  Climate change disproportionately affects food-insecure regions, threatening crop and livestock production, fish stocks, and fisheries. It is expected to intensify in the coming decades, with even small changes in weather patterns impacting productivity.

• Food Losses and Waste:
  Food losses and waste account for a significant portion of agricultural output. Reducing these would decrease the pressure on production, but current systems are not efficient enough to achieve this.

• Transboundary Pests and Diseases:
  These pose a growing threat to food systems, especially with the increasing resistance of pests and diseases to antimicrobial treatments.

• Conflicts and Crises:
  These events are increasing in number and intensity, reducing food availability, disrupting access, and pushing people into poverty and hunger. Protracted crises are particularly harmful, with higher rates of undernourishment in affected low-income countries.

• Poverty and Inequality:
  Despite progress since the 1990s, around 700 million people are still extremely poor, and 800 million are chronically hungry. Inequality remains a major obstacle to poverty eradication.

• Nutrition and Health:
  Malnutrition, including both undernourishment and overnourishment (obesity), is a growing concern. The report highlights the need for healthier diets to address these issues.

• Structural Change and Employment:
  Agriculture's share in GDP and employment is declining, leading to a shift in labor from rural to urban areas. This has contributed to the 'feminization' of agriculture as more men migrate.

• Migration and Agriculture:
  Migration is increasing, especially from rural areas, driven by the lack of economic opportunities. This has significant implications for rural livelihoods and food systems.

• Changing Food Systems:
  Food systems are becoming more capital-intensive, vertically integrated, and concentrated. This trend is increasing the environmental footprint and reducing the role of small-scale producers.

• Governance and Development Finance:
  Effective governance and financial support are essential for sustainable development. The report highlights the importance of international cooperation and development finance in addressing these challenges.

Key Challenges

• Sustainable Agricultural Productivity:
  Meeting growing food demand requires sustainable productivity improvements. Current systems are not sufficient, and further innovation is needed.

• Natural Resource Sustainability:
  The natural resource base is under threat from deforestation, water scarcity, soil depletion, and biodiversity loss. Sustainable management is crucial.

• Climate Change Mitigation:
  Climate change is a major threat to food systems, requiring the adoption of climate-smart agriculture and other holistic approaches to reduce its impact.

• Poverty Eradication and Inequality Reduction:
  Addressing inequality is essential to ensure that pro-poor development strategies benefit the most vulnerable. This includes improving access to land and assets.

• Ending Hunger and Malnutrition:
  Achieving the goal of ending hunger and malnutrition requires systemic changes, including healthier diets and improved food systems.

• Building Resilience:
  Food systems must become more efficient, inclusive, and resilient to withstand the impacts of crises, disasters, and conflicts.

• Coherent Governance:
  National and international governance must be coherent and effective to support sustainable development. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides a global framework for this.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for a holistic and transformative approach to food and agriculture. It highlights the interdependence of all countries in achieving sustainable development and the importance of addressing inequalities, protecting natural resources, and building resilient food systems. The future of food and agriculture depends on global cooperation, innovation, and a shift towards more sustainable and inclusive practices.