联合国贸易发展委员会-2023年海运回顾（英）-2023-157页_2mb

Summary of the Review of Maritime Transport 2023

Core Content

The Review of Maritime Transport 2023, published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), provides an in-depth analysis of the current state and future outlook of the global maritime transport industry. It highlights the challenges and opportunities faced by the sector in the context of a green and just transition, emphasizing the need for sustainability, digital transformation, and equitable development.

Main Views

• Maritime trade remains vital to global economic stability, with over four-fifths of all international trade passing through maritime channels. It plays a critical role in the transportation of food, energy, and other essential goods.
• Seaborne trade declined slightly in 2022 (by 0.4%) due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, but growth resumed in 2023, with a projected increase of 2.4% and a continuation of moderate growth (around 2.1% annually) from 2024 to 2028.
• Containerized trade saw a decline of 3.7% in 2022 but is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2023 and by over 3% from 2024 to 2028, although this is below the historical growth rate of 7% over the previous three decades.
• Shipping patterns and routes are shifting, influenced by growing commercial tensions and the new geography of transport and trade. This has resulted in increased average distances for certain commodities like oil and grain.
• Maritime transport is at a crossroads, facing pressures to decarbonize, adopt digital technologies, and adapt to evolving trade and regulatory environments.

Key Information

1. International Maritime Trade

• Trade flows remain a key indicator of global economic health. Despite disruptions, the industry is expected to continue growing in the medium term.
• Disruptions to shipping and ports, especially due to the war in Ukraine, have threatened energy and food security.
• Geographic shifts are observed in maritime trade, with new trade corridors and regional dynamics emerging.
• Policy recommendations include enhancing trade connectivity, investing in port infrastructure, and promoting sustainable practices.

2. World Shipping Fleet, Services, and Freight Rates

• The world fleet has seen changes in size and composition, with increased age and slower growth in new vessel construction.
• Freight market trends show volatility, especially in container shipping, where overcapacity is a growing concern.
• Freight rates have fluctuated, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and other indices reflecting market conditions.
• Policy recommendations focus on managing fleet capacity, reducing costs, and promoting digital solutions to enhance efficiency.

3. Decarbonizing Shipping

• Carbon emissions from international shipping have risen by 20% since 2013, underscoring the urgent need for decarbonization.
• Alternative fuels are not yet widely available or cost-effective, and ships using them are more expensive.
• Decarbonization will have significant implications for states, especially developing ones, due to the cost implications of energy transition and increased logistics expenses.
• Voluntary initiatives and regulatory frameworks are being explored to support the transition to low-carbon shipping.
• Policy recommendations include supporting the development of alternative fuels, promoting energy efficiency, and ensuring that developing countries are not left behind in the transition.

4. Port Performance and Maritime Trade Facilitation

• Port performance has improved in some regions, but delays and inefficiencies remain a challenge.
• Digital transformation is a key driver of efficiency, with the adoption of electronic bills of lading and port community systems (PCS) playing a crucial role.
• The TrainForTrade Port Management Programme has provided valuable insights and lessons on improving port operations and sustainability.
• Policy recommendations emphasize the need for investment in port infrastructure, especially in developing regions, and the promotion of trade facilitation measures to enhance efficiency and reduce costs.

5. Legal Issues and Regulatory Developments

• Regulatory measures under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are increasingly important in addressing pollution from ships.
• Electronic bills of lading and other digital trade documents are being promoted as part of the shift towards more efficient and transparent maritime trade.
• Legal frameworks such as the Maritime Labour Convention (MLC 2006) and IMO Data Collection System (DCS) are being strengthened to support the industry's transition to sustainability and digitalization.
• Policy recommendations include the development of legal and regulatory instruments that support the green transition, enhance trade facilitation, and protect the rights of seafarers and port workers.

Conclusion

The Review of Maritime Transport 2023 outlines a path forward for the maritime industry, emphasizing the need for sustainability, digital transformation, and equitable development. It calls for international cooperation, policy support, and investment in infrastructure to ensure a green and just transition in maritime transport. The report serves as a comprehensive guide for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers in understanding the evolving landscape of global maritime trade.