【联合国贸易发展委员会】2024年海运回顾-2024_166页_9mb

2024 Review of Maritime Transport: Navigating Maritime Chokepoints

Core Content

The 2024 Review of Maritime Transport by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) provides an in-depth analysis of the current state and future outlook of the global maritime sector, with a particular focus on the impact of maritime chokepoints. The report outlines key trends in maritime trade, fleet developments, freight rates, port performance, and the legal and regulatory environment. It emphasizes the need for sustainability, resilience, and adaptation to new challenges in the shipping industry.

Main Views and Key Information

International Maritime Trade

• Trade Growth: UNCTAD forecasts a 2% increase in maritime trade volume in 2024 and a 3.5% rise in containerized trade. For 2025-2029, the average growth rate for total seaborne trade is projected at 2.4%, and for containerized trade at 2.7%.
• Drivers of Growth: Increased demand for major bulk commodities like bauxite, coal, grain, iron ore, and oil is expected to fuel trade expansion.
• Challenges: The sector is navigating complex disruptions, including those at the Panama Canal, Suez Canal, and Red Sea, which have altered trade routes, increased costs, and affected global supply chains.
• Impact of Disruptions: The report highlights that the Suez and Panama Canals are critical chokepoints that, when disrupted, force ships to take longer routes, increasing transit times and fuel consumption, thus contributing to higher emissions and costs.

World Shipping Fleet and Services

• Fleet Trends: In 2023, the global shipping fleet grew faster than trade volumes, with longer routes helping absorb surplus capacity.
• Fleet Ageing: The world fleet is aging, and while environmental regulations are becoming stricter, progress in fleet renewal remains slow.
• Ownership and Flag: The global fleet is primarily owned by developed economies but flies the flags of developing countries.
• Fleet Renewal and Greening: The report notes that asymmetrical shipyard capacity and cost pressures are influencing the renewal and greening of the fleet. There is a push towards greener technologies and more efficient operations.

Freight Rates and Their Impacts

• Container Freight Rates: In 2023, container freight rates returned to normalcy, but in 2024, they surged due to global disruptions and extended shipping routes.
• Charter Rates: Charter container ship rates stabilized in 2023 but are rebounding in 2024, still facing disruptions.
• Dry Bulk and Tanker Freight Rates: Dry bulk freight rates were low in 2023 but became volatile due to supply issues. Tanker freight rates saw significant increases in 2024 due to strong demand and disruptions.
• Economic Impact: Rising freight rates due to chokepoint disruptions have led to higher consumer prices and negatively impacted the GDP of small island developing states (SIDS) and least developed countries (LDCs).

Port Performance and Trade Facilitation

• Port Call Trends: There has been an increase in port calls globally, with liner shipping connectivity playing a crucial role in trade efficiency.
• Port Performance Metrics: The report discusses the importance of measuring port performance, including time in port, waiting time, and cargo handling efficiency.
• TrainForTrade Scorecard: A new approach to assessing port performance is introduced, highlighting the role of women in the maritime workforce and the need for improved connectivity between ports and hinterlands.
• Infrastructure and Costs: Investment in maritime infrastructure is shown to have a significant impact on reducing transport costs and improving trade facilitation.

Legal and Regulatory Environment

• Climate and Weather Risks: The report examines the legal implications of weather-related risks on commercial contracts, emphasizing the need for better risk allocation mechanisms.
• Fraudulent Ship Registration: There is a call to combat fraudulent ship registration and improve transparency in maritime registries.
• Adaptation and Sustainability: The shipping industry must transition to cleaner technologies and alternative fuels to meet sustainability goals and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Policy Considerations

• Fleet Renewal and Greening: Policy measures should encourage the development of a new and younger fleet, with a focus on greener technologies and digitalization.
• Port Performance: Improving port efficiency through performance monitoring and reporting is essential for supporting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially those related to gender equality and women's empowerment.
• Trade Facilitation: Enhancing connectivity between ports and hinterlands, along with investment in transport infrastructure, is critical for ensuring resilience and efficiency in maritime trade.
• International Cooperation: Greater international cooperation and adherence to IMO standards are necessary to address challenges like climate change and supply chain disruptions.

Conclusion

The 2024 Review of Maritime Transport underscores the vital role of maritime transport in global trade and highlights the growing vulnerability of the sector due to disruptions at key chokepoints. It calls for a coordinated effort among stakeholders to build a more sustainable, resilient, and efficient maritime system. The report also emphasizes the importance of adapting to the green transition, improving port performance, and enhancing trade facilitation to support the global economy in the face of ongoing challenges.