【联合国贸易发展委员会】2024年海运回顾（概述）_38页_3mb

2024 Review of Maritime Transport Summary

Core Content

The 2024 Review of Maritime Transport highlights the critical role of maritime transport in global trade and the growing challenges posed by disruptions in key maritime chokepoints. These disruptions, including attacks in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, reduced water levels in the Panama Canal, and geopolitical tensions, have significantly impacted shipping routes, trade patterns, and freight rates. The report also addresses the sector's need for decarbonization, resilience, and sustainable development, emphasizing the importance of international cooperation, green technologies, and digitalization.

Main Challenges and Impacts

• Maritime Chokepoints Vulnerability: Strategic waterways like the Suez, Panama, and Malacca Straits are vital for global trade but are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions. These disruptions have forced ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing travel distances, transit times, and operational costs.

• Impact of Disruptions:

  • The Ever Given blockage in 2021 and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea (2023) have led to major shifts in shipping routes and trade flows.
  • The Panama Canal has experienced a decline in daily transits due to drought, while Suez Canal transits have also dropped significantly.
  • These disruptions have led to higher fuel consumption, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and greater exposure to piracy and safety risks.

• Rising Freight Rates:

  • Container freight rates have reached new peaks in 2024, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaging 2,130 points in January 2024, up from 1,000 points in 2023.
  • The China Containerized Freight Index increased by 120 per cent between October 2023 and June 2024, with the Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions contributing 148 percentage points.
  • The Baltic Exchange Dry Index also saw a rise, with the Panama Canal disruption contributing 45 per cent to the increase.

• Economic Consequences:

  • Higher freight rates have been passed on to consumers, contributing to inflationary pressures.
  • Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are particularly vulnerable, with consumer price increases projected at 0.9% for SIDS and 0.8% for LDCs.
  • These increases threaten economic growth, especially for SIDS, which rely heavily on seaborne trade and have limited domestic production capacity.

Key Trends and Outlook

• Maritime Trade Growth:

  • Global maritime trade is expected to grow by 2% in 2024, with containerized trade rebounding by 3.5%.
  • The world economy's recovery and increased demand for major commodities (iron ore, coal, grain, oil, and containerized goods) support this growth.

• Long-Term Outlook:

  • Maritime trade is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4% between 2025 and 2029.
  • Technological advancements, cleaner energy transitions, and infrastructure development will be crucial in driving this growth.

• Trade and GDP Relationship:

  • A diverging trend between maritime trade and GDP growth has been observed since 2006, with trade growing more slowly than GDP in 2023.
  • This could indicate a potential decoupling of maritime trade from economic growth, influenced by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and trade protectionism.

Policy and Strategic Recommendations

• Enhance Resilience and Reliability:

  • Strengthen maritime chokepoints through technology, data, and early warning systems.
  • Promote collaboration among stakeholders (Governments, shipping companies, port authorities, etc.) to manage risks and respond to disruptions.

• Diversify Supply Chains:

  • Reduce dependency on single routes or sources by diversifying shipping routes, fuel sources, and manufacturing locations.
  • Develop contingency plans for alternative routes and ports to mitigate the effects of disruptions.

• Invest in Infrastructure:

  • Improve port capacity, storage facilities, pipelines, and bunkering infrastructure to reduce congestion and enhance buffer capabilities.

• Support Sustainable Development:

  • Accelerate the transition to cleaner energy sources and green technologies to meet environmental targets.
  • Ensure fair compensation and recognition of supply chain workers to avoid workforce shortages during critical times.

• Strengthen Trade Facilitation:

  • Improve port-hinterland connectivity through intermodal transport solutions.
  • Enhance international cooperation to support sustainable and efficient maritime operations.

Conclusion

The 2024 Review of Maritime Transport underscores the vulnerability of global supply chains to disruptions at maritime chokepoints and the need for resilience and sustainability in the sector. It calls for strategic investments, innovation, and international collaboration to future-proof maritime transport and support global trade in the face of ongoing geopolitical, environmental, and economic challenges.