联合国贸易发展委员会-2023年海运回顾（综述）-英-34页_1008kb

UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2023: Towards a Green and Just Transition

Key Findings

1. Trade Trends:

   • Global seaborne trade declined slightly in 2022 (-0.4%), but UNCTAD projects 2.4% growth for 2023 and a medium-term outlook of 2–3% annual expansion.
   • Containerized trade fell by 3.7% in 2022 but is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2023, still below the 7% long-term average.

2. Challenges:

   • Shipping faces supply-demand imbalances, overcapacity, and geopolitical tensions (e.g., war in Ukraine).
   • The industry must accelerate decarbonization while balancing economic viability and sustainability.

3. Decarbonization Imperative:

   • Shipping contributes about 3% of global GHG emissions. Decarbonization involves transitioning to low/zero-carbon fuels and technologies.
   • Proposed IMO short-term measures (e.g., EEXI, CII) may increase logistics costs by up to 2.7% and reduce GDP by 0.08% by 2030.

4. Regional Disparities:

   • Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) face higher vulnerability to increased logistics costs and limited capacity to adapt.
   • Fleet modernization and capacity renewal present challenges for shipowners, exacerbated by uncertainty over alternative fuels.

5. Policy Recommendations:

   • Fleet Renewal: Support timely investment in new vessels and green technologies.
   • Fuel Transition: Establish clear targets for low/zero-carbon fuels and level the cost gap between alternatives and conventional fuels.
   • Equity: Ensure a just transition by directing funds towards SIDS and LDCs for infrastructure and adaptation.
   • Port Efficiency: Promote digitalization, trade facilitation, and electronic documentation.
   • Global Cooperation: Advocate for a unified regulatory framework and multilateral solutions under IMO.

6. Technology Role:

   • Digitalization, electronic bills of lading, and port automation enhance efficiency and transparency.
   • Cybersecurity risks associated with digital platforms must be addressed.

Forward-Looking Measures

• Green Shipping Corridors: Pilot initiatives to test low-carbon fuels and optimize routes.
• Investment Needs: Decarbonization by 2050 requires ~$8–$28 billion annual investment, including fuel infrastructure and bunkering facilities.
• UNCTAD Support: Leverages research, tools (ASYCUDA, TRAINFORTRADE), and technical assistance to support developing countries’ transition.