收敛一致增长预测中的气候损害（英）-2023.6-36页_989kb

The paper addresses the discrepancy in climate damage estimates between Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and climate-econometric approaches. It introduces a convergence-consistent growth model that aligns with neo-classical economic theory. The key findings include: climate damage estimates from IAMs (e.g., 7% income reduction) are lower compared to econometric estimates (up to 20% in some studies), but incorporating convergence effects significantly reduces damages to an estimated 6% global income loss. The convergence model accounts for diminishing returns to capital, ensuring long-term growth remains unaffected. Without convergence, projected damages are higher and distributions vary more across countries due to persistent growth effects. Including convergence aligns econometric projections better with IAM results and reduces inequality projections. The paper thus emphasizes that ignoring convergence overstates long-term climate damage risks.