牛津经济研究院-建设的未来-2030年全球建筑业预测（英）-2021.10-62页_13mb

Summary of "Future of Construction: A Global Forecast for 2030"

Core Content

This report by Oxford Economics, commissioned by Marsh and Guy Carpenter, provides a comprehensive forecast of the global construction industry's trajectory from 2020 to 2030. It outlines key trends, growth drivers, and challenges that will shape the industry's future, with a focus on economic recovery, technological innovation, and the impact of climate change.

Main Viewpoints

• Construction as a Global Economic Engine: The construction industry is expected to be a major driver of global economic recovery and growth post-pandemic. Global construction output is projected to grow from $10.7 trillion in 2020 to $15.2 trillion by 2030, representing a 42% increase.

• Short-Term Recovery: In 2021, the industry is forecast to grow by 6.6%, with residential construction leading the recovery due to increased household spending and the release of accumulated savings. Emerging markets, particularly Latin America, are expected to see near double-digit growth.

• Long-Term Growth Drivers: Infrastructure development is identified as the fastest-growing sector within construction, driven by unprecedented government stimulus and the acceleration of global mega infrastructure projects. The US and EU are key players, with the US Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility expected to boost growth significantly.

• Regional Growth Patterns: Asia-Pacific will see the highest growth in construction output, adding $2.5 trillion between 2020 and 2030. China, India, the US, and Indonesia will account for 58.3% of global construction growth, with China alone contributing 26.1%. The UK and Australia are also expected to grow significantly, with the UK potentially surpassing China in infrastructure growth by 2030.

• Demographic Trends: Rising populations and urbanisation in emerging markets will drive construction demand, particularly for infrastructure and residential projects. In developed countries, permanent inward immigration will support construction activity, especially in the Anglosphere and OECD nations.

• Climate Change and Net Zero: Climate change is a major challenge for the construction industry, with the built environment responsible for 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The push for Net Zero will drive the development of a deconstruction industry and the use of carbon calculators to assess and reduce the environmental impact of new projects.

• Modern Methods of Construction: Off-site manufacturing and advanced technologies such as 3D printing and robotics are expected to become the new normal, significantly enhancing construction productivity and efficiency.

• Risks and Uncertainties: Near-term risks include the potential resurgence of the Delta variant and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, which may affect growth and inflation. Longer-term risks involve the global debt-to-GDP ratio, which will necessitate increased reliance on Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) for funding infrastructure projects.

Key Information

• Global Construction Output: Expected to grow by $4.5 trillion between 2020 and 2030, reaching $15.2 trillion.
• Construction as a Percentage of GDP: Set to increase from 13% in 2020 to over 13.5% by 2030.
• Top Construction Markets: China, India, the US, and Indonesia are projected to be the largest contributors to global construction growth.
• Infrastructure Growth: Infrastructure construction is forecast to grow at an annual average of 5.1% between 2020 and 2030, with significant support from government stimulus packages.
• Climate and ESG Impact: ESG-related capital for infrastructure grew by 28% in 2020, and the industry is expected to play a key role in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Paris Agreement commitments.
• Deconstruction Industry: An emerging deconstruction industry will reuse materials from existing buildings, reducing carbon emissions and supporting sustainable development.

Conclusion

The construction industry is poised to lead the global economic recovery from the pandemic, with significant growth anticipated across all regions. The industry will face both opportunities and challenges, particularly in the areas of climate change, technological innovation, and financing. Collaboration between the construction and insurance sectors will be essential to manage evolving risk profiles and ensure sustainable growth.