2025-05-15-Jefferies-凯亚拉（KEY）_2025年第一季度业绩初览（符合预期）_8页_134kb

Summary of Jefferies Equity Research on Keyera Corp. (KEY CN)

Date: May 15, 2025

Key Findings

• Rating: BUY with a price target of C$49.00, up 11% from current C$44.29.
• Financial Performance:
  • 1Q25 Adj. EBITDA reached C$298 mn, aligning with Jefferies' estimate of C$297 mn and consensus C$301 mn.
  • Segment analysis: Liquids Infrastructure (C$152 mn), Gathering & Processing (C$109 mn), and Marketing (C$78 mn) all met or exceeded expectations due to operational efficiency, high utilization, and new contracts.
• Outlook and Guidance:
  • 2025 Marketing EBITDA expected to fall within C$310-350 mn long-term base guide, with a C$50 mn drag from a longer-than-anticipated AEF outage.
  • Positive FID on the C$500 mn KFS Frac III expansion, scheduled for mid-2028, adding ~60% to frac capacity after completion.
  • Wapiti plant utilization is projected to increase to higher levels in 2026, one year earlier than previously expected, supported by strong customer demand and contract execution.
• Long-Term Outlook: 7-8% fee-based adj. EBITDA CAGR growth through 2024-27 remains unchanged; 2025 growth capital is C$300-330 mn, covering KFS Frac II, KAPS Zone 4, and other projects.
• Valuation: Based on dividend discount, DCF, and EV/EBITDA models; price target reflects positive catalysts and steady growth.
• Risks: Adverse regulatory decisions, operational disruptions (e.g., spills, outages), and commodity price declines could impact performance.

Analyst Certifications

• Anthony Linton and Roger Agarwal certify the views reflect their independent analysis, with no compensation tied to recommendations.

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: BUY; 12-month price target C$49.00, with an 11% upside opportunity.
• Distribution: Conference call at 10 am ET on May 15, 2025.

Note: Current market cap is C$10.1B, with 1Q25 floating 99.6% and ADV MM USD 41.00.