2025-06-09-Jefferies-4月药品进口同比下降2_给提前拉动需求理论泼冷水_7页_134kb

Pharma Imports Update and Pull-Forward Thesis

• April 2025 pharmaceutical imports to the US decreased 2% year-over-year, contrasting sharply with the 78% y/y surge in March. The analysis attributes the March spike to inventory shifts from the EU to the US, concluding it was an outlier and not indicative of a genuine pull-forward effect due to tariffs or trade policies.
• This data supports previous findings from Q1 earnings, healthcare conferences, and CEO discussions, confirming no meaningful pull-forward has occurred or is expected, thereby alleviating concerns about its impact on life science tools and bioprocess companies ahead of Q2 earnings.

Company Valuation and Risks

• Avantor Inc. (AVTR) is rated "Buy" with a $20 price target, based on a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and an implied 14x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2025.
• Key risks include heightened competition, potential slowdown in the bioprocessing market, elevated leverage, and failures to achieve synergy targets.

Overall Summary

• The report counters speculative fears about trade-related pull-forward effects through normalized import data, reinforcing confidence in the sector's fundamentals. Avantor is positioned as a potential investment, but risks such as market volatility and execution challenges must be considered.