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Equity Research: AXP Credit Analysis

Date: May 15, 2025

Key Insights on AXP Credit Performance

• DQs (Debt Quality) remained flat at 1.4% in April 2025, with no monthly or year-over-year change, aligning with historical averages and seasonal expectations.
• NCOs (Net Charge-offs) improved significantly, decreasing by 40 bps month-over-month (YoY change improved to -50 bps vs. prior month's +10 bps).

Loan Growth

• Total card loans reached $90.7B in April, growing 0.7% month-over-month and 9.8% year-over-year.
• Management projected a moderate annual loan growth of approximately 10% for future periods.

Valuation & Risk

• Price target: $230, implying ~13.5x FY26E EPS.
• Risks: Lower merchant acceptance, reduced discount rates, credit quality decline, and regulatory pressures.

Analysts

• John Hecht, Alexander Villalobos, Ibrahim Kargbo, Yuna Sohn, and Jonathan Weitz.
• Rating: Hold.