2025-05-15-Jefferies-贝壳控股（BEKE）_考虑最新业务趋势_12页_302kb

报告摘要

Summary of KE Holdings Equity Research Report

Company Overview

KE Holdings (BEKE) is a holding company operating an online and offline platform for housing transactions and services in China, with over 20 years of history. It has a large Agent Co-operation Network (ACN) and focuses on integrating real estate services.

1Q25 Financial Performance

Total GTV (Group Transaction Volume) increased 34% YoY to RMB843.7bn, beating estimates.
Revenue grew 42% YoY to RMB23.3bn, exceeding consensus estimates.
- Existing homes segment: GTV up 28% YoY (vs estimate of 20% YoY), revenue up 20% YoY (vs estimate of 15% YoY).
- New homes segment: GTV up 53% YoY (vs estimate of 40% YoY), revenue up 64% YoY (vs estimate of 51% YoY).
- Home renovation and furnishing revenue up 22% YoY.
- Gross profit YoY was 17% (vs estimate of 20%), due to product mix and fixed compensation.
- Non-GAAP net profit exceeded consensus and Jefferies' estimate.

Conference Call Highlights

Existing home market is recovering, supported by government stimulus.
Sequential performance: Existing home GTV dropped post-CNY seasonality, pricing declined slightly in March and April.
New home sales stabilized, with year-over-year demand growth in property showings.
Emphasis on market uncertainties and seasonal declines.

Analyst Recommendation and Valuation

Rating: Maintain BUY, with price target lowered to $24.50 (22x 2026E P/E) from $26.00.
Investment thesis supports capturing long-term value in brokerage services and growing home renovation and rental businesses.
Key risks: Property market slowdown, stringent regulations on real estate, increased competition.
Sustainability focus: Achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 and reduce emissions intensity.

Key Growth Areas and Initiatives

Home rental services unit grew management units to over 500K and improved default management.
Expansion in home renovation and furnishing with AI integration, including C2M solutions for developers.
AI tools like "Buding" and "Laike" improved transaction efficiency for agents.

Financial Projections (Based on Exhibits)

Revenue projected to grow steadily from 2024-2026, with net profit improvement.
Balance sheet shows stable positions, with increasing assets and shareholder equity.
Payouts align with long-term strategy focused on operational gains.

Risks and Uncertainties

High sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, government policies, and competitive dynamics.
Potential impact from stricter real estate regulations and increased competition.

展开完整摘要