那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-在经济周期的这个阶段，什么是最好的政策组合？-20180423-7页_729kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the current state of economic policy mixes in major developed economies, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the euro zone, in the context of unemployment rates approaching the structural unemployment rate. It highlights the divergent approaches taken by these regions and evaluates which policy mix is more appropriate at this stage of the economic cycle.

Main Views

• Unemployment Levels: The unemployment rate is close to the structural unemployment rate in the U.S., U.K., euro zone, and Japan.
• Expected Policy Mix: When unemployment approaches the structural rate, a restrictive policy mix (both fiscal and monetary) is generally expected.
• Current Policy Mixes:
  • Japan: Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are in place.
  • Euro Zone and U.K.: Fiscal policies are becoming more restrictive, while monetary policies remain expansionary.
  • United States: Monetary policy is being normalized, while fiscal policy is expansionary.

Key Information

• Japan:
  • Fiscal dominance is observed, with monetary policy supporting expansionary fiscal measures.
  • The Bank of Japan maintains a low 10-year interest rate target.
• Euro Zone and U.K.:
  • Fiscal policies are tightening, but monetary policies are still accommodative.
  • This combination may lead to increased demand without a corresponding fiscal expansion.
• United States:
  • Monetary policy is becoming more restrictive in response to expansionary fiscal policy.
  • This may create a conflict between the two policy types, as both are moving in opposite directions.
• Conclusion:
  • The ideal policy mix at this stage would be restrictive for both fiscal and monetary policies.
  • Among the current imperfect choices, the euro zone and the U.K. are seen as making less dangerous decisions compared to Japan and the U.S.

Policy Implications

• Japan's Approach: While expansionary, it is considered more risky due to fiscal dominance and potential long-term consequences.
• U.S. Approach: The combination of tightening monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy may lead to imbalances and inflationary pressures.
• Euro Zone and U.K. Approach: A mix of tightening fiscal policy and expansionary monetary policy is seen as a more balanced approach, helping to stabilize the economy without overstimulating it.

Disclaimer and Legal Notes

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and cannot be shared without prior written consent from Natixis.
• The information is not personalized and does not constitute an investment recommendation.
• Natixis does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
• The views expressed are the personal opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis or its affiliates.
• The document is subject to regulatory requirements in various jurisdictions, and recipients must comply with local laws.

Regulatory Information

• Supervision: Natixis is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), and authorized in France by the ACPR.
• Regulation: It is regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in France, and by the FCA and PRA in the U.K.
• Other Jurisdictions: In Germany, Spain, Italy, and the UAE, Natixis operates under specific regulatory frameworks.

Summary

The document emphasizes the importance of a restrictive policy mix when unemployment approaches the structural rate. It outlines the current policy approaches in the U.S., U.K., Japan, and the euro zone, highlighting that while none are fully restrictive, the euro zone and the U.K. are making relatively less dangerous choices. The U.S. and Japan face more significant risks due to their respective policy conflicts. The analysis concludes that a balanced and restrictive approach is preferable, but current economic realities force policymakers to choose among imperfect options.