那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-应该认识到，现在的风险是不对称的-20180423-7页_800kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

The document "Flash Economics" published on 23 April 2018 discusses the current state of the global economic cycle and financial markets, emphasizing the asymmetric nature of risks. It outlines that the global economy is nearing full employment, which is expected to lead to a slowdown in growth and trade. Additionally, it highlights the diminishing role of monetary stimulus and the high valuations of financial and real estate assets, suggesting that investors should consider hedging their portfolios.

Main Views

1. Asymmetric Risk Environment

• Global Economic Growth is expected to slow down as the world approaches full employment.
• Global Trade Growth will also decline, as it did in the past due to the pickup in trade.
• Monetary policies are beginning to normalize, with central banks like the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan gradually tightening their policies.
• Financial and real estate asset prices are at high levels and unlikely to rise further, with default rates at all-time lows.

2. OECD Countries and Employment

• OECD countries are also nearing their structural unemployment rate, indicating a potential slowdown in growth.
• In the United States, United Kingdom, and Japan, the unemployment rate is very low, suggesting a strong labor market.
• In the Eurozone, although the unemployment rate is still high, companies face recruitment challenges, which may indicate underlying structural issues in the labor market.

3. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

• The monetary stimulus has been a key driver of global and OECD economic growth, supported by low interest rates.
• This stimulus is expected to decline over time as central banks move towards more normal monetary conditions.
• In emerging markets (excluding China), the disinflation that allowed for lower interest rates is no longer present.
• In China, monetary policy is becoming more restrictive to control excessive borrowing and liquidity.

4. Asset Valuations

• Equity valuations are currently high.
• Real estate prices have recovered significantly.
• Risk premia on corporate bonds are at very low levels.
• Default rates are at historical lows, but some are showing signs of increase.

Key Information

• Global Growth Potential: Expected to decrease to around 2.5% from the previous 4%.
• OECD Growth Potential: Expected to return to 1.3%.
• Monetary Policy Trends: Gradual normalization across major economies.
• Asset Valuation Outlook: Financial and real estate markets are unlikely to experience substantial further growth.
• Investor Recommendation: Hedge financial portfolios due to the asymmetric risk environment.

Conclusion

The document concludes that asymmetric risks are now a defining feature of the global economic and financial landscape. Growth, trade, and monetary stimulus are expected to decline, while asset prices are unlikely to rise significantly. As a result, investors are advised to hedge their portfolios to mitigate potential losses.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors.
• It is strictly confidential and should not be shared with third parties without prior consent.
• No personalized investment recommendation is provided.
• The views expressed are personal opinions and do not constitute financial advice.
• No liability is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
• The document is not subject to legal requirements promoting the independence of investment research.
• The regulatory status of Natixis varies by jurisdiction, and the document is subject to local laws and restrictions.

Regulatory Information

• Supervised by: European Central Bank (ECB), Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Régulation (ACPR) in France, Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France.
• Authorized in: UK by FCA and Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), Germany by BaFin, Spain by Bank of Spain and CNMV, Italy by Bank of Italy and CONSOB, and Dubai by DFSA.
• Address: 1251 Ane of the Americas, New York, NY 10020.

Additional Notes

• The stocks mentioned may have specific disclaimers, which can be found at the provided link.
• The author's personal views may differ, and Natixis may issue reports with different conclusions.