那提西银行-全球-经济理论-全球贸易放缓是暂时的还是永久性的现象？-20180413-6页_571kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document analyzes the slowdown in global trade since 2008 and explores whether it is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. It discusses the implications of this trend on economic growth and the transmission of economic cycles across countries.

Main Views

The slowdown in global trade has occurred in relation to global GDP, which contrasts with the previous trend where trade growth outpaced GDP growth. The document suggests that while the slowdown has had temporary components due to various crises, it also reflects permanent structural changes in the global economy.

Temporary Causes

• Euro-zone crisis (2010-2014): Led to a slowdown in trade for affected countries.
• Emerging-country crisis (2013-2015): Also contributed to a temporary decline in trade.
• Chinese slowdown (2014-2016): Reduced trade activity in China and its trading partners.
• Post-crisis recovery: Import growth has resumed, especially in emerging countries, indicating that the temporary effects may be waning.

Permanent Causes

• Shift in production closer to consumers: This trend, along with increased protectionism, may reduce the reliance on long-distance trade.
• Stabilization of imports-to-GDP ratio: The ratio has not increased since the crisis, suggesting a structural change in trade dynamics.
• Loss of cost competitiveness for emerging countries: This has led to a stabilization in the share of imports from these countries.
• Decline in the weight of industry in the global economy: As the service sector grows, the trade-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall due to lower trade intensity in services.

Key Information

• Global trade growth has slowed since 2008, especially in comparison to GDP growth.
• Charts 1A and B illustrate the historical trend of global trade and GDP growth.
• Exports have slowed, which has had a negative impact on growth in exporting countries.
• Economic cycle decoupling has occurred, particularly between the US and the euro zone.
• Chart 4A and B show the timeline of various crises affecting global trade.
• Chart 5 highlights the reduction in import activity during these crises.
• Chart 6 shows the stabilization of the imports-to-GDP ratio.
• Chart 7 and 8 indicate that emerging countries are no longer increasing their import share.
• Chart 9 and 10 show the decline in manufacturing production and the rise in trade in services.

Conclusion

• The slowdown in global trade since 2008 has both temporary and permanent components.
• While crises contributed to short-term declines, the structural changes in trade patterns suggest a long-term trend.
• The decline in manufacturing and the rise of services are key factors in the permanent slowdown.
• The import-to-GDP ratio and the import share from emerging countries are stabilizing, not increasing, further supporting the permanent nature of the slowdown.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and cannot be shared without consent.
• The analysis is not a financial recommendation and does not take into account individual circumstances.
• Natixis does not accept liability for the use of the information provided.
• The views expressed are the personal opinions of the authors and may differ.
• The document is subject to regulatory restrictions in certain jurisdictions.
• The disclaimers and specifications are available at the provided link for further details.