2017年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_An_Assessment_of_the_Economic_Impact_of_Brexit_on_the_EU27_60页_1mb

Summary of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27

Core Content

This report, commissioned by the European Parliament's Committee on Internal Market and Consumer Protection, evaluates the economic impact of Brexit on the EU27 and the UK, considering various post-Brexit trade and cooperation scenarios. It highlights the differences in economic consequences between the UK and the EU27, emphasizing that the latter would experience relatively minor losses, while the former could face more substantial economic challenges.

Main Points

1. Trade and Investment

• Trade in Goods: The UK and EU27 have substantial trade in goods, with the EU27 exporting €306 billion and importing €184 billion in 2015.

  • The EU27's exports to the UK represent 2.5% of its GDP, while the UK's exports to the EU27 are 7.5% of its GDP.
  • The UK has a large trade deficit with the EU27, which is 11.9% of its GDP.
  • Major exporters from the EU27 to the UK include Germany, Netherlands, France, Belgium, and Ireland.
  • Major importers from the UK to the EU27 include Germany, France, Netherlands, and Ireland.

• Trade in Services: The UK and EU27 also have significant service trade, with the UK exporting €122 billion and importing €94 billion in 2015.

  • The UK has a €28 billion surplus in services trade with the EU27, while the EU27 has a €28 billion deficit.
  • The total service trade is around €216 billion, slightly less than the total goods trade of €491 billion.

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):

  • The EU27 has a large FDI stock in the UK of €985 billion, or 8.3% of its GDP.
  • The UK has a FDI stock in the EU27 of €683 billion, which is 26.6% of its GDP.
  • A significant portion of this FDI is attributed to tax optimization strategies by multinational corporations.

• Labour Flows:

  • In 2016, 3.35 million EU27 citizens were living in the UK, with the majority being workers.
  • 1.217 million UK citizens were living in the EU27, mainly pensioners and students.

• EU Budget:

  • The UK's withdrawal would leave an annual budget hole of about €9 billion.
  • Additional "legacy costs" are estimated to be in the range of €20–40 billion, though not yet defined or quantified.

2. Brexit Scenarios

• EEA Scenario: The UK's potential accession to the EEA as a non-member state like Norway is no longer considered a viable option following Prime Minister May's speech.
• WTO Scenario: The default scenario if no agreement is reached within two years is a WTO-based trade relationship, which would likely lead to higher trade barriers.
• CFTA Scenario: The UK aims for a Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (CFTA), similar to the EU-Canada CETA and the Ukraine/Georgia/Moldova DCFTA.
  • CETA is international in nature, while DCFTA includes single market access and broader cooperation.
  • The UK's proposed "Great Repeal Act" suggests it may aim for a DCFTA-like model, but the future alignment with EU acquis remains uncertain.

3. Economic Impact

• Quantitative Estimates:

  • For the EU27, economic losses are minimal, ranging from 0.11% to 0.52% of GDP by 2030.
  • For the UK, losses are more significant, averaging 1.31% to 4.21% of GDP, or 0.13% to 0.41% annually.
  • In pessimistic scenarios, the UK's losses could reach 7.5% of GDP or 0.75% annually.

• Sectoral Impact:

  • The UK's trade deficit with the EU27 is heavily concentrated in goods, particularly machinery and transport equipment, chemicals, and food products.
  • The UK's financial services and business services are major exports to the EU27.
  • The EU27 has a significant import dependency on the UK, especially in financial services and ICT.

• Qualitative Considerations:

  • The WTO scenario is the most pessimistic, but the UK might adopt aggressive tax and regulatory reductions to mitigate its losses.
  • This could lead to negative responses from the EU27, potentially restricting UK access to its markets.
  • Strategic uncertainty and political instability may affect investment and economic growth in both the UK and the EU27.

Key Information

• The UK is more economically dependent on the EU27 than vice versa.
• The EU27 would bear only a small portion of the economic costs of Brexit, with losses being disproportionately higher for the UK.
• Transatlantic trade is of similar magnitude to UK-EU27 trade, highlighting the UK's strategic importance in global trade.
• Mirror data discrepancies in service trade indicate significant challenges in measuring service flows accurately.
• The plausible range of outcomes now includes a CFTA as the most optimistic and WTO as the most pessimistic scenario.

Conclusion

The economic impact of Brexit is expected to be relatively minor for the EU27, but substantial for the UK, especially under pessimistic scenarios. The CFTA model appears more favorable for the UK, but the WTO scenario remains the most likely if no agreement is reached. The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory alignment and investment flows in determining the long-term economic consequences of Brexit.