2025-06-11-花旗集团-中东欧_中东和非洲战略_中东欧_中东和非洲本地利率和外汇战略_43页_835kb

CNBC Emerging Markets & CEEMEA Strategy Analysis

Key Insights

1. Macro Economic Standing

• Fiscal Deleveraging Challenges: Debt-to-GDP ratios and fiscal deficits are rising across both Emerging Markets (EM) and developed markets (DM). EM countries face higher servicing burdens, particularly Brazil, South Africa, and Mexico.
• Asset-Swap Spreads: EM spreads (e.g., HUF, CZK, PLN) initially decreased but recently normalized, contrasting with DM trends.

2. Policy & Currency Dynamics

• Monetary Conditions: EM monetary conditions tighten marginally as real yields rise. Czech Republic leads in growth impulse, while Hungary and Turkey lag due to weak fundamentals.
• Currency Trends: Easing USD dominance seen via central bank gold holdings, yet EMFX remains volatile. JPY, AUD, and CAD show divergent behaviors.

3. Market Drivers

• Capital Flows: EM local funds see net inflows since COVID, contrasting hard currency outflows.
• CPI & Inflation: EM inflation is stabilizing (e.g., Turkey, Israel), but core CPI diffusion shows varying pressures.

4. Yield Curve Analysis

• EM vs DM: EM real yields lag DM, but spreads (e.g., Hungary, Israel) signal compressed margins. Premiums over the risk-free rate (R*) stabilize but not favorably.

Country-Specific Highlights

• Hungary: Weak industrial growth and government measures offsetting a dovish inflation trend. Market fears expanded fiscal policy.
• Poland: Fiscal consolidation under PiS governance challenges growth, while auto and consumption sectors provide boosts.
• South Africa: Term structure indicates positives, influenced by fiscal consolidation and currency movements.
• Israel: Fundamentals improving with fiscal consolidation, though political risks and elevated terminal rates remain concerns.
• Turkey: De-dollarization stalling, consumption slowing due to rising real rates; FX positions improving modestly.

Disclosures

• Material conflicts of interest as Citi Research acts as a market maker in certain instruments.
• Analysis based on Bloomberg, IMF, and internal models.

Summary Disclaimer

This report considers multiple factors but is one of many inputs for investment decisions.