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CEEMEA Economics Week Ahead Summary

Date: 12 June 2025
Scope: Analysis of key economic indicators for CEEMEA region (Central and Eastern European countries along with Israel, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Mexico, Taiwan, and Korea).

Key Countries Covered: Israel, Hungary, Poland, Turkey.

Israel

• Forecast for CPI YoY increase: 3.6%.
• Comment: Headline is distorted by volatile flight prices; focus on core indicators (including housing) is crucial.

Hungary

• Estimated gross wages growth YoY: 8.5% (unprinted vs. March).
• Comment: Anticipate a gradual slowdown in wage growth in the coming months.

Poland

• Estimated core inflation YoY (partial breakdown): 3.3% (slightly lower than previous reading of 3.4%)
• Estimated core inflation momentum (quarterly annualized): 2.5%.

Turkey

• Expectation: CBT (Central Bank) will likely bring the average funding rate closer to the one-week repo rate (forecasted at 46.0%).
• Leading indicators suggest a current account deficit of US$7.6bn (April estimate), driven by a goods deficit (US$9.7bn) and primary income deficit (US$1.6bn), offset slightly by a services surplus (US$3.6bn).