2025-06-10-花旗集团-中东欧_中东和非洲地区要点_12页_181kb

Citi CEEMEA Point June 10, 2025 Summary

Top Call

• Talabat (DU): Downside risks to margins not fully reflected in price. Initiate at Sell due to potential margin peak and Meituan's expansion threat. Target Price AED 1.20 implied.
• Emerging Markets Economic Outlook: Focus on currency dynamics and inflation persistence.
• LPP SA (WA): Reports Q1 2025 results expected. EBITDA slightly down YoY vs. consensus. Gross margin contraction noted.
• EM Credit Barometer: EM dollar demand remains strong, supporting spreads and credits.
• US Data/Fed: Weakness delayed, Fed likely sticks to hawkish stance.

Strategy & Economics

• Emerging Europe: Regional context for the report.
• US Equity Valuation: Improved positioning for large caps; mixed views on Europe. Risk sentiment positive globally.
• Africa Economics: Questions Ghana Cedi's recent strength sustainability and compares stability drivers with Mozambique metical.
• EM FX/Equity: USDF/EUR pressured by weak data; JPY potentially impacted more. Risk/benefit assessment varies.
• Debate: US hard data turn delayed seems positive for risk but this report also says bad for volatility due to asymmetric USD risk.

Analyst Highlights

• Nekrasov: Talabat (DU) Sell rating.
• Wiatr: LPP SA Q1 2025 results preview.
• Cowan: Africa economics on cedi/met cable stability.
• Montagu et al.: US equity positioning; Africa economic outlook.
• Tobon et al.: EM credit outlook; US hard data/USD FX.

Key Target Price Changes

• Talabat (DU): Sell initiated; prior rating unknown. New TP: AED 1.20; prior TP unknown.

Market & Economic Theme

• Focus on currency dynamics (GHS, ETB, MZN), US labor market persistence, EM positioning, infrastructure investors' concerns.