2024-12-16-国际清算银行-新闻中的货币政策_沟通传递与通胀预期（英）_36页_666kb

The paper investigates the media's role in transmitting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance to the public and its influence on households' inflation expectations. Using large language models (LLMs), particularly GPT-4, the study analyzes approximately 14,000 articles from eight major media outlets covering 224 FOMC meetings from 1994 to 2023. It finds a strong consistency between FOMC communication and media coverage, with pass-through being especially strong for extreme sentiments and influenced by communication tools like press conferences and chair tenure.

The research shows that the communication pass-through improved with the introduction of press conferences in 2011, which allow the Fed chair to clarify policy, but faced challenges during the zero lower bound (ZLB) period post-GFC. The analysis also reveals that media coverage significantly affects households' medium-term inflation expectations, particularly during periods of high inflation volatility, such as the post-pandemic surge. However, FOMC communication itself does not directly impact household expectations, highlighting the media's crucial role in channeling central bank information to the public.

Key findings include:

• LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) effectively capture sentiment in FOMC communication and media articles.
• Media coverage tracks FOMC sentiment closely but is particularly influential for households during high inflation periods.
• New chairs face challenges in establishing communication credibility, leading to weaker pass-through initially.
• The media plays a central role in shaping public perception of monetary policy.