2023-12-15-国际清算银行-加价和成本推动冲击的不对称传递_56页_666kb

Markups and Asymmetric Pass-Through of Cost Push Shocks

Summary

This paper examines how sectoral prices and markups respond to global oil supply shocks using data from the U.S. economy. The key findings are:

1. Pass-Through of Oil Shocks:

   • High markups reduce the pass-through of positive (dis-inflationary) oil supply shocks to sectoral Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation but do not significantly affect the pass-through of negative (inflationary) oil shocks.

2. Mechanism of Asymmetry:

   • High-markup firms are more likely to raise their markups and expand their revenues following positive oil shocks, benefiting from their pricing power.
   • High-markup firms grow faster relatively after positive oil shocks, contributing to sector-level markup increases that dampen the impact of such shocks.

3. Cushion Against Inflationary Pressures:

   • High markups provide little protection against inflationary shocks, contradicting the view that high markups act as shock absorbers in all scenarios.

4. Energy Intensity Factor:

   • The dampening effect of high markups is not driven by low energy intensity, as energy-intensive sectors show higher pass-through, while high markups still mitigate the transmission of positive shocks in these industries.

Financial Market Data in Japan

... (Financial market-related content not directly relevant to the paper's main focus)