20240611-铜冠金源期货-铜周报_降息预期减弱_铜价震荡下行_10页_806kb

Copper Market Summary - June 11, 2024

Core Viewpoints

Copper prices declined due to weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, driven by strong US non-farm payroll data indicating economic resilience. Domestic demand recovery remains fragile, leading to elevated inventory levels, while supply constraints are already factored into pricing. Short-term outlook is bearish with a recommendation to wait for clearer signals, amid risks from global monetary policies and investment trends.

Market Dynamics

Prices were down following US economic strength that sidelined expectations for broad monetary easing. LME and SHFE inventories increased, reaching approximately 123,800 tons and 337,000 tons respectively, fueled by both high domestic production and slower consumption. Copper imports suffered losses, and spot prices showed moderation in some regions.

Supply and Demand Balance

Production remains elevated, with China output potentially exceeding 96-97kt in May, though demands are lagging. Grid-related and power sectors are underperforming, but air conditioning and renewable energies offer modest support. High inventory pressures, up 450,000 tons globally by late May, are expected to sustain volatility.

Strategy and Risks

Strategy: Maintain观望 stance due to uncertain demand and price trends. Risk factors include unexpected Fed actions on rates and slower growth in power and energy investments, which could amplify price swings.