彼得森经济研究所-_互惠_关税_它们的真正目的是什么_（英）-2025_18页_655kb

This Policy Brief critically analyzes the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs. The administration's reliance on bilateral trade deficits measured to unfair foreign trade practices is incorrect, as imbalances result from various factors unrelated to unfairness.

The method used to estimate reciprocal tariffs is flawed. It applies a "one size fits all" approach, ignores differential responses to tariffs, and assumes an unrealistically low pass-through rate (25%) into final prices, significantly overestimating necessary tariffs.

The policies disproportionately target poor countries and understate the effective penalty on domestic production due to global value chains and imported intermediate inputs. High tariffs imposed, if fully passed through, serve as price controls harming exports from specific preferential programs (like AGOA) and reduce production competitiveness in targeted countries.

These tariffs significantly affect only a small fraction of the total trade deficit, and they shift trade deficits to non-targeted economies. While giving the President more leverage for negotiating preferential access, the policies do little to reduce the overall U.S. trade deficit and harm relations, especially with countries like China providing preferential treatment to Africa. Country-specific calculations should replace the flawed current system to avoid collateral damage.