OECD-2017年中经济展望-2017.9.20-21页-2mb

OECD Interim Economic Outlook Summary (2017)

Core Content

The OECD Interim Economic Outlook from September 2017 provides an analysis of global economic performance and prospects, highlighting both short-term growth momentum and the challenges to achieving sustained medium-term growth. It emphasizes the need for fiscal and structural reforms to support long-term economic stability and inclusiveness.

Main Points and Key Messages

1. Short-term Momentum is Broad-based

• Growth performance in the euro area has improved more than expected.
• The global upturn is synchronised across major economies.
• Policy support in several countries has boosted the first half of 2017.

2. Strong and Sustained Medium-term Growth is Uncertain

• Private investment needs to recover to ensure a self-sustained economic recovery.
• Inflation remains subdued, and wages have not increased significantly.
• Emerging market economies (EMEs) require deeper reforms to achieve stronger future growth.

3. Policy Must Not Be Complacent

• There is a need to rebalance from monetary to fiscal and structural support for growth and wages.
• Monetary policy should be supportive but cautious to avoid financial risks.
• Fiscal space should be used with better tax and spending policies to promote inclusive growth.
• Structural reforms must be stepped up to improve productivity, wages, and skills.

Global Economic Performance

Global GDP Growth (2016-2018)

Key Trends

• Industrial production and trade have shown improvement, with a rebound in the tech cycle.
• Trade intensity (ratio of trade growth to GDP growth) is higher than in previous periods.
• Productivity gains from increased trade openness are significant, especially when compared to the 1986-2007 period.

Challenges to Sustained Growth

1. Investment Recovery is Weak

• Non-residential investment in OECD countries remains below potential GDP.
• Zombie firms (firms with profits not covering interest payments) are a major drag on investment, with a significant share of total capital stock in some countries.

2. Trade and FDI Barriers

• Trade restrictions in G-20 countries have increased since the financial crisis.
• Constraints on cross-border investment persist, limiting growth potential.

3. Inflation and Wages

• Inflation in advanced economies remains below targets, partly due to declining services price inflation.
• Wages have not increased, which hinders core inflation.

4. Emerging Market Economies (EMEs)

• EMEs need to maintain growth to "catch up" with advanced economies.
• GDP growth in EMEs has slowed since the 2000s.
• Investment and productivity growth in EMEs are mixed, requiring institutional and structural reforms.

Policy Recommendations

1. Monetary Policy

• Interest rates have remained very low.
• Yield curves on government debt are flat, indicating low inflation expectations.
• There is a disconnect between exchange rates and interest rates, which may affect competitiveness.

2. Fiscal Policy

• Government interest payments have declined, indicating improved fiscal health.
• The fiscal stance is expected to ease, with a focus on underlying primary balance.
• Fiscal policy has become less redistributive, increasing inequality.
• Public spending needs to be reformed to improve growth and equity.

3. Structural Reforms

• Structural reforms should be accelerated to improve productivity, business dynamism, and skills.
• Institutional reforms are crucial for EMEs to achieve sustainable growth.
• Corruption reduction and development are closely linked, as shown by the Going for Growth recommendations.

Conclusion

The OECD outlook underscores that while the global economy has shown short-term resilience, medium-term growth is uncertain and requires policy action. Fiscal and structural reforms are essential to sustain growth, manage debt, and promote inclusive development. Emerging market economies in particular need to deepen reforms and enhance investment to catch up with advanced economies.