OECD+经济展望（2023年第1卷）-253页_7mb

OECD Economic Outlook Summary - June 2023

Core Content

The OECD Economic Outlook June 2023 provides a comprehensive assessment of the global macroeconomic situation, highlighting the challenges and opportunities facing economies worldwide. It outlines the current state of growth, inflation, and financial conditions, while also emphasizing the importance of structural reforms and gender equality in promoting sustainable and inclusive economic development.

Main Views

Global Growth and Inflation

• Global growth has stabilised in 2023 but remains subdued, with a modest increase expected in 2024.
• The average global growth rate is projected to be 2.7% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, both below pre-pandemic levels.
• Headline inflation is expected to decline gradually from 7.8% in 2022 to 4.7% in 2024, while core inflation remains persistent, particularly in advanced economies.
• Energy prices have fallen back to mid-2021 levels, contributing to the easing of inflationary pressures.
• Monetary policy tightening has had a noticeable impact on financial markets, including housing markets and corporate bond markets, with credit conditions becoming more restrictive and financial stress remaining contained.

Financial Conditions and Risks

• Global financial conditions are tighter, with rising funding costs, tightened credit standards, and increased market volatility.
• Emerging-market economies are particularly vulnerable due to higher debt servicing costs, capital outflows, and reduced credit availability.
• A further tightening of financial conditions could hit growth and exacerbate risks in these economies.
• Central banks need to maintain restrictive monetary policies until underlying inflationary pressures show clear signs of abating.

Fiscal Policy and Challenges

• Fiscal support has been significant during the pandemic and the Ukraine war but is now declining in most countries.
• Moderate fiscal consolidation is expected in the coming years, with public investment likely to increase in many countries.
• Primary budget balances are still below pre-pandemic levels, and fiscal sustainability is a growing concern.
• Targeted fiscal support should focus on vulnerable households and productivity-enhancing investments, especially in the context of climate transition and ageing populations.

Key Information

Policy Requirements

• Monetary policy must remain restrictive to address core inflation.
• Fiscal policy should be scaled back and better targeted to preserve growth and reduce debt burdens.
• Structural reforms are essential to boost long-term growth and improve living standards.
• Gender equality is a key driver of economic growth and resilience, requiring policy interventions to address gender gaps in employment, wages, and entrepreneurship.

Structural Reforms

• Labour and product market reforms are needed to stimulate growth and increase productivity.
• Cross-border trade and migration barriers should be reduced to enhance competition and economic dynamism.
• Skill development and flexible, inclusive labour markets are critical to adapting to technological change and demographic shifts.

Country-Specific Developments

The report includes detailed assessments of economic developments in OECD and selected non-member countries. These cover:

• Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Euro area, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye, United Kingdom, and United States.

Each country section provides insights into growth, inflation, fiscal balance, and policy challenges.

Gender Equality and Economic Growth

• Women's employment is still lagging in many countries, and gender wage gaps persist.
• Women are more vulnerable to economic shocks and poverty, especially due to high childcare costs.
• Gender equality is associated with higher income per capita, and policy actions are needed to improve access to childcare, promote parental leave, and remove barriers to female participation in the workforce.
• Entrepreneurship and management roles remain under-represented by women, and gender-inclusive labour markets are a priority for many countries.

Conclusion

The OECD Economic Outlook underscores the fragile recovery and the need for coordinated policy actions. It calls for careful calibration of monetary and fiscal policies, ambitious structural reforms, and enhanced international cooperation to address long-term challenges such as climate change, demographic shifts, and global supply chain disruptions. The long-term outlook for growth and resilience is dependent on these policy efforts and the ability to adapt to new economic realities.