世界银行-印尼经济展望_2025年6月_以人为本的住房——印尼从住房到就业再到繁荣的路线图（英）-2025.6_48页_4mb

Indonesia Economic Prospects 2025 Summary

Part A: Economic Update

• Growth: Indonesia's economy grew by 4.9% YoY in Q1-2025, slightly below pre-pandemic averages. Global uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and trade barriers are projected to reduce global growth to 2.4% in 2025-26.
• Inflation: Headline inflation stands near 1.0% (YoY average year-to-May), within BI’s target range. Core inflation remains stable, but concerns about subdued growth and job creation persist.
• Monetary Policy: BI has eased policy by 50 bps in 2025 and plans further reductions. FX reserves cover 6.2 months of imports, supporting currency stability.
• Fiscal Policy: A budget deficit of 2.7% of GDP is targeted; efficiency measures and revenue adjustments (e.g., mining royalties, VAT) aim to create space for priority programs like housing and social assistance.
• Key Risks: Capital outflows driven by global trade uncertainty, slowing commodity prices, and heightened FX volatility.

Part B: Roadmap for Homes to Jobs to Prosperity

• Vision: Meet President Prabowo’s 3 million homes/annual target by prioritizing safe, resilient housing. Housing contributes 10% to GDP and 7% to employment.
• Two-Pillar Strategy:
  • Pillar 1: Housing and Infrastructure
    • Accelerate urban development, transit-oriented housing, and disaster-resilient infrastructure.
    • Mobilize US$3.8Bn public investment and US$2.8Bn private capital.
    • Leverage public-private partnerships and blended finance for large-scale projects.
    • Promote housing microfinance and innovative building technologies to reach underserved populations.
  • Pillar 2: Policy and Institutional Reforms
    • Deregulate trade, simplify permitting, and relax local content requirements to boost private investment.
    • Reform public housing finance institutions (e.g., FLPP, TAPERA) to rationalize subsidies, expand credit access, and align with housing needs.
    • Strengthen land administration and data systems to enable adaptive planning and improve settlement infrastructure.

Key Recommendations & Impacts

• Jobs & Growth: Reforms and housing investments could generate 2.3 mn jobs and raise GDP growth to 5.3–5.5% by 2026–27.
• Funding: ⇒ US$3.8Bn public investment + US$2.8Bn private capital mobilized under the 3 Million Homes program.
• Priorities: Focus on low-income housing, slum upgrading, and regulatory reforms to enhance affordability and access.

Conclusion

Indonesia’s economic outlook is balanced but sensitive to global conditions, requiring prudent macro management. Achieving housing goals demands coordinated reforms, multi-sectoral integration, and partnerships to unlock inclusive growth, ensuring affordable and resilient housing for all.