2022-12-12-贝莱德-2023年全球宏观报告（英）_16页_339kb

报告摘要

The era of "Great Moderation" (stable growth and low inflation) has ended, replaced by greater macroeconomic and market volatility.
A recession is foretold due to central banks aggressively tightening policy to combat inflation.
A new investment playbook is required, as old strategies no longer apply, with a focus on greater granularity.

Pricing the Damage: Economic damage from inflation and policy tightening is already reflected in markets, leading tactical underweight on equities. Damage pricing determines portfolio adjustments, with a focus on market risk sentiment.
Rethinking Bonds: Bonds offer "income" after yields surged, attracting investors. Granular exposure (e.g., short-term government bonds, high-grade credit) is preferred over broad allocations due to persistent inflation and reduced safe-haven roles.
Living with Inflation: Inflation is likely to persist above 2% targets. Inflation-linked bonds are strongly overweighted tactically and strategically.

Tactical: Underweight developed market equities due to recession risks; overweight investment-grade credit, inflation-linked bonds, and specific sectors/regions. Emphasizes frequent portfolio changes for granular opportunities.
Strategic: Modest overweight equities and credit over the decade, underweight nominal bonds. Transition opportunities from structural trends like net-zero and digitization.

Aging Populations: Reduced workforce growth and consumption strain economies, slowing production.
Geopolitical Fragmentation: Competition (e.g., U.S.-China) and energy security risks increase permanent market volatility.
Net-Zero Transition: Accelerated by climate policies, creating investment opportunities but adding production constraints.

The new regime demands more dynamic, granular investing across asset classes. A balanced approach considers short-term damage pricing and long-term trends, with features like inflation compensation and nimble adjustments.

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