20131031-DBS_Group-SHKP_s_project_launches_in_the_pipeline_31页_996kb

报告摘要

SHKP's Project Launches and Market Overview (October 2013)

Core Content Summary

This report provides an overview of SHKP's residential and office projects, along with market trends and valuation analysis for property developers and investors in Hong Kong as of October 2013.

Main Residential Projects

Project Launches in October 2013

The Cullinan: Launched in October 2013, located atop Kowloon MTR Station. SHKP undercut the market initially and gradually increased prices due to strong buyer response. It has sold 155 units, representing 50% of the total units (311), with an average selling price (ASP) of HK$27,000 per square foot.

Upcoming Residential Projects

Century Gateway Ph 2: Located in Tuen Mun, adjacent to Tuen Mun MTR Station. Pre-sale consent was obtained in July 2013. It consists of small-to-medium units, making it more marketable. Expected to be launched in FY14 with an estimated 911 units.
Fanling project (FSSTL 202): Located in Fanling, with pre-sale consent obtained in August 2013. Estimated to be launched in FY15 with 144 units.
Imperial Kennedy: Located in Kennedy Town, with a 92% stake. Pre-sale consent is pending, and it is expected to be launched in FY16 with 161 units.
RIVA: Located in Yuen Long, with an occupation permit granted in September 2013. SHKP may re-launch it at an appropriate time with 780 units.

Office Projects

KTIL 173: Located in Kwun Tong, a joint venture with Wong's International. Pre-sale consent was obtained in January 2013, with a total gross floor area (GFA) of 309,500 square feet. The project is near completion and commands an unobstructed view of Victoria Harbour.
AIL 298: Located in Wong Chuk Hang, scheduled for completion in 2015. Pre-sale consent is pending.

Valuation Analysis

Property Developers

Company	Code	Last Price (HK$)	12-m Target (HK$)	Market Cap (HK$bn)	Discount to NAV (%)	Recommendation
Cheung Kong	1 HK	122.70	146.30	284	(35)	Buy
Hang Lung Group	10 HK	41.05	46.95	55	(30)	Buy
Hang Lung Props	101 HK	25.60	30.10	115	(32)	Buy
Henderson Land	12 HK	46.35	49.70	125	(44)	Hold
K Wah Int'l	173 HK	4.18	5.36	11	(63)	Buy
Kerry Properties	683 HK	33.45	36.40	48	(54)	Buy
MTR Corp	66 HK	30.00	30.85	174	(18)	Hold
New World Dev	17 HK	10.90	12.56	69	(52)	Hold
Sino Land	83 HK	10.76	14.80	64	(49)	Buy
SHKP	16 HK	102.60	124.60	274	(42)	Buy
Tai Cheung	88 HK	5.91	6.89	4	(66)	Buy
Wheelock & Co.	20 HK	39.20	43.00	80	(41)	Buy
Wing Tai Props	369 HK	4.65	6.17	6	(66)	Buy

Property Investors

Company	Code	Last Price (HK$)	12-m Target (HK$)	Market Cap (HK$bn)	Discount to NAV (%)	Recommendation
Great Eagle	41 HK	27.65	35.15	18	(61)	Buy
HK Land	HKL SP	6.19	7.94	15	(38)	Buy
Hysan Dev	14 HK	36.20	39.50	39	(40)	Buy
Swire Properties	1972 HK	21.35	27.80	125	(39)	Buy
Wharf	4 HK	65.75	71.20	199	(22)	Buy

REITs

REIT	Code	Last Price (HK$)	12-m Target (HK$)	Market Cap (HK$m)	Discount to NAV (%)	Recommendation	Yield FY13 (%)	Yield FY14 (%)
Champion REIT	2778 HK	3.47	3.75	19,827	(61)	Hold	5.8	5.2
Fortune REIT	778 HK	6.29	8.02	11,622	(38)	Buy	5.6	6.3
Yuexiu REIT	405 HK	3.87	n.a.	10,707	(39)	NR	7.2	7.7
Hui Xian REIT	87001 HK	3.88	n.a.	20,038	(66)	NR	6.4	7.0
Link REIT	823 HK	38.95	41.70	90,009	(40)	Buy	3.8	4.1
Prosperity REIT	808 HK	2.32	2.76	3,229	(39)	Buy	6.5	6.9
Regal REIT	1881 HK	2.30	n.a.	7,492	(66)	NR	7.4	8.2
Sunlight REIT	435 HK	3.01	3.62	4,865	(41)	Buy	6.5	6.2

Key Market Trends and Factors

Residential Demand and Supply:
- Real GDP growth and unemployment rate are key indicators affecting demand.
- 3-month HIBOR vs Prime rate and effective mortgage rate influence affordability.
- Housing affordability and rental yields (mass market projects) are monitored closely.
- Housing supply data is provided to track market conditions.
Transaction Trends:
- Primary Market:
  - Transaction volume and value are reported by Centaline Property Agency.
  - The Cullinan's launch drew significant attention due to its location and the subsidy for foreign and corporate buyers.
- Secondary Market:
  - Transaction volume and value are also reported by Centaline Property Agency.
  - The Cullinan and Century Gateway Ph 2 are highlighted as projects with notable market performance.
Market Performance:
- Share price movements and trading ranges are compared across developers, investors, and REITs.
- The Heng Seng Index (HSI) is used as a benchmark for market performance.

Important Dates

The Cullinan: Launched in October 2013.
Century Gateway Ph 2: Pre-sale consent obtained in July 2013.
RIVA: Occupation permit obtained in September 2013.
KTIL 173: Pre-sale consent obtained in January 2013.
AIL 298: Scheduled for completion in 2015.
FSSTL 202: Pre-sale consent obtained in August 2013.
Imperial Kennedy: Expected to be launched in FY16 with an old lease.

Conclusion

SHKP's strategic project launches, including The Cullinan and potential re-launch of RIVA, are showing positive market responses. The company's strong marketing skills and market positioning have led to significant sales. Other major developers and investors are also showing promising valuations and performance. The report highlights the importance of market trends, supply and demand factors, and the impact of interest rates and affordability on the real estate market.

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