20150901-DBS_Group-YTD_volume_higher_than_2013_s_18页_641kb

报告摘要

China Property Weekly Digest Summary (Issue No. 140)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the performance of the Chinese property market, focusing on sales volume, average selling prices (ASPs), inventory levels, and stock price movements across different cities and property companies. It is divided into three tiers of cities (Tier I, Tier II, Tier III) and includes data on share price performance and peer valuations.

Key Market Performance Metrics

Weekly Sales Performance (Aug 24 – Aug 30)

Overall GFA Sold: Increased by 9% week-over-week (w-o-w), with a 26% year-over-year (y-o-y) increase for the first 35 weeks of the year.
Total GFA Sold (Tier I/II/III cities):
- Tier I: 1,170,000 sm, up 25% w-o-w and 43% y-o-y.
- Tier II: 4,643,000 sm, up 7% w-o-w and 37% y-o-y.
- Tier III: 1,578,000 sm, up 3% w-o-w and 39% y-o-y.
ASP Trends:
- Tier I: 25,087 Rmb/sm, down 3% w-o-w and up 23% y-o-y.
- Tier II: 10,077 Rmb/sm, up 1% w-o-w and down 10% y-o-y.
- Tier III: 5,869 Rmb/sm, up 2% w-o-w and down 3% y-o-y.
New Units Launched:
- Tier I/II cities: 10,000 units launched, up 57% w-o-w.
- Sell-through rate: 65%, up from 60% in the previous week.
Inventory Level:
- Dropped to 64 weeks (vs. 66 weeks in the previous week), lower than the 2014 average of 77 weeks.
- Rolling 26 weeks inventory trend shows a decline in the number of weeks needed to digest inventory.

Share Price Performance (YTD)

HSI: 21,185.
YTD Share Price Performance:
- Overall increase in share prices, with varying performance across different property companies.
Trading Volume:
- Daily trading volume for the week showed mixed trends, with some companies experiencing increases and others decreases.
Average Weekly Trading Volume:
- The average weekly trading volume is also presented, with variations across companies.

Peer Valuation Comparison (1 September 2015)

Large Cap

Company Name	Code	Price (HK$)	3-Month Market Cap (US$m)	Recommendation	EPS Growth	PE (15F)	PE (16F)	PE Yield (14A)	Yield (14A)	ROE	Net Yield	Disc/Prem to NAV
China Overseas	688 HK	22.15	218.4	Buy	38.96	(8)	7	6.6	2.5	2.9	17.2	15.5
Country Garden	2007 HK	2.69	60.8	Buy	4.86	(20)	8	5.1	4.7	6.4	15.4	14.8
CR Land	1109 HK	18.6	128.9	Buy	24.98	(28)	16	10.2	8.8	5.1	42.7	32.4
China Vanke	2202 HK	17.92	198.0	Buy	23.41	8	17	9.6	8.2	5.4	18.6	19.9
Dalian Wanda	3699 HK	47.5	215.0	NR	n.a.	(39)	24	9.6	7.7	60.4	13.4	19.9
Evergrande	3333 HK	5.08	73.7	Hold	5.35	(50)	37	9.8	7.2	85.9	7.8	46.0
Longfor	960 HK	9.15	53.3	NR	n.a.	(19)	11	6.1	5.5	57.1	14.1	59.9
Shimao Property	813 HK	10.32	35.8	Buy	13.50	(7)	6	3.9	3.7	58.6	8.2	63.8
Guangzhou R&F	2777 HK	7.04	22.7	NR	n.a.	5	11	3.4	3.1	91.7	12.7	61.1
Sino-Ocean Land	3377 HK	3.95	29.7	Buy	6.70	(21)	26	7.0	5.6	65.9	8.4	52.8
Yanlord Land	YLLG SP	1.03	2.0	Buy	1.54	(29)	44	10.0	6.9	44.9	4.6	47.4
Yuexiu Property	123 HK	1.21	15.0	Hold	1.49	(41)	16	7.3	6.3	63.1	3.1	61.2

Mid Cap

Company Name	Code	Price (HK$)	3-Month Market Cap (US$m)	Recommendation	EPS Growth	PE (15F)	PE (16F)	PE Yield (14A)	Yield (14A)	ROE	Net Yield	Disc/Prem to NAV
Agile Property	3383 HK	3.79	14.8	Hold	3.66	(27)	17	3.5	3.9	8.8	7.4	62.9
COGO	81 HK	2.43	5.5	Buy	4.30	29	49	3.4	2.3	12.5	16.1	73.5
Franshion	817 HK	1.82	19.4	Buy	2.97	(47)	24	6.3	5.1	59.9	9.3	59.9
Greentown	3900 HK	5.8	12.5	NR	n.a.	84	7	3.3	3.0	76.7	13.1	68.6
Shui On Land	272 HK	1.69	13.6	Hold	1.97	(133)	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	19.3	5.2	65.5
Sunac China	1918 HK	4.1	13.9	NR	n.a.	20	23	2.9	2.4	21.0	22.0	44.5
Yanlord Land	YLLG SP	1.03	2.0	Buy	1.54	(29)	44	10.0	6.9	44.9	4.6	47.4
Yuexiu Property	123 HK	1.21	15.0	Hold	1.49	(41)	16	7.3	6.3	63.1	3.1	61.2

Small Cap

Company Name	Code	Price (HK$)	3-Month Market Cap (US$m)	Recommendation	EPS Growth	PE (15F)	PE (16F)	PE Yield (14A)	Yield (14A)	ROE	Net Yield	Disc/Prem to NAV
BJ Cap Land	2868 HK	3	6.1	NR	n.a.	(8)	24	3.2	2.6	13.4	16.7	87.0
BJ North Star	588 HK	2.13	7.2	NR	n.a.	6	12	7.2	6.4	73.0	5.2	56.0
C C Land	1224 HK	1.77	4.6	Hold	2.06	6	(79)	4.0	19.5	18.5	2.8	36.1
Central China	832 HK	1.46	3.6	Buy	3.02	6	28	3.0	2.4	43.4	6.5	77.5
China SCE	1966 HK	1.6	5.5	NR	n.a.	11	24	4.5	3.6	68.0	15.7	61.1
CIFI Holdings	884 HK	1.4	9.5	NR	n.a.	10	22	3.4	2.8	58.2	20.0	58.2
First Sponsor	FSG SP	1.22	0.7	Buy	1.57	112	13	13.3	11.8	n.a.	2.0	40.4
Glorious Property	845 HK	0.83	6.5	NR	n.a.	(127)	(63)	6.7	18.0	100.0	5.9	85.9
Hydoo Int'l	1396 HK	0.94	3.8	NR	n.a.	42	28	4.3	3.4	60.4	16.0	n.a.
Kaisa Group	1638 HK	1.56	8.0	NR	n.a.	14	18	2.2	1.8	70.4	16.5	85.9
Lai Fung	1125 HK	0.125	2.0	NR	n.a.	(79)	50	8.8	5.9	10.8	0.6	78.5
Minmetals Land	230 HK	0.73	2.4	NR	n.a.	43	44	4.0	2.8	49.2	7.3	77.5
Powerlong	1238 HK	1.33	5.3	NR	n.a.	11	18	2.2	1.8	70.4	5.9	85.9

Key Takeaways

Sales Volume: Overall sales volume increased 9% w-o-w and 26% y-o-y for the first 35 weeks of the year.
ASP Trends:
- ASPs in Tier I cities decreased by 3% w-o-w but increased 23% y-o-y.
- Tier II cities saw a 1% w-o-w increase and a 10% y-o-y decrease.
- Tier III cities experienced a 2% w-o-w increase and a 3% y-o-y decrease.
Inventory:
- Inventory levels dropped to 64 weeks, significantly lower than the 77 weeks average in 2014.
Share Price Performance:
- The overall share price performance showed a mix of increases and decreases, with some companies performing better than others.
- Peer valuations varied across large, mid, and small-cap companies, with some recommended for "Buy" and others for "Hold" or "NR" (Not Rated).

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the property market dynamics, including performance metrics and valuation comparisons, which are crucial for investors and stakeholders in the sector.

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