2023-11-23-国家经济和社会研究所-英国中低收入家庭面临七年生活水平下降_89页_2mb

UK Economic Outlook: Autumn 2023 Summary

Macroeconomic Outlook

• GDP growth forecast: 0.6% (2023), 0.5% (2024) due to monetary tightening and fiscal constraints.
• Inflation expected to fall below the 2% target by late 2025 (currently at 4.2% in 2023).
• Interest rates have peaked at 5.25%, expected to remain near current levels through early 2024.

Fiscal Policy

• Public debt declining (from 97.8% of GDP to under 90% by 2027), but tightened fiscal rules constrain spending.
• Recommendations for increased public investment (toward ~3% of GDP annually) to boost growth and productivity, complementing deficit reduction targets.

Distributional and Regional Impacts

• Living standards for income deciles 2-5 not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2026.
• Destitution projected to fall to ~1.1 million people (including ~300,000 children) by 2024, driven by wage increases.
• London shows high productivity but slow growth; regional disparities persist, worsening in areas like the Midlands.

Policy Recommendations

• Use fiscal space in 2024 for infrastructure and housing investment, not tax cuts.
• Address London’s productivity paradox through cross-government coordination, skills training, and R&D funding.
• Increase National Minimum Wage and target transformative, long-term investments to foster inclusive growth.