世界银行-从顺风到顺风_21世纪新兴和发展中经济体（英）-2025.7_78页_1mb

Summary of "From Tailwinds to Headwinds: Emerging and Developing Economies in the Twenty-First Century"

• Introduction: EMDEs, now accounting for about 45% of global GDP (up from 25% in 2000), have been vital drivers of global growth since the 2000s, contributing around 60% of annual global growth on average. This growth has been fueled by global trade and financial integration, particularly during the first decade of the century, and robust domestic reforms in many economies.

• Evolution of Integration: EMDEs have become more deeply integrated into the global economy through trade and financial linkages. Today, over half of their goods exports go to other EMDEs, and they account for the majority of global commodity demand and supply.

• Business Cycle Synchronization: Multiple measures show that business cycle synchronization among EMDEs and between EMDEs and advanced economies has increased significantly since the 1990s. Especially since the 2010s, EMDE-specific business cycles have emerged due to stronger cross-border trade and financial linkages.

• Spillovers: Growth spillovers from EMDEs have increased over time. A 1-percentage-point increase in EM3 GDP growth leads to cumulative output increases of nearly 2 percentage points in other EMDEs over three years. However, spillovers from the AE3 remain considerably larger due to the dominance of advanced economies in global trade and finance.

• Challenges: EMDEs face significant headwinds, including global trade fragmentation, rising protectionist trade and investment restrictions, widening fiscal challenges, supply-side constraints such as lower productivity and investment growth, adverse climate change impacts, aging populations, stalling structural reforms, and heightened policy uncertainty.

• Policy Priorities: To improve their economic prospects, EMDEs need to focus on boosting investment and productivity, navigating difficult external conditions, and managing macroeconomic risks. Key policies include reforms to improve the institutional environment and human capital development, fiscal space restoration, collaboration on climate change mitigation, and deepening regional trade agglomeration and financial integration.

EMDEs now play a pivotal role globally, but their challenge is to sustain growth amid rising protectionism and climate pressures through credible reforms and policies.

Report Source: World Bank Group, Development Economics, Prospects Group, July 2025.