国家经济和社会研究所-英国中低收入家庭面临七年生活水平下降（英）-2023-89页_2mb

National Institute UK Economic Outlook Autumn 2023: Key Summary

The National Institute UK Economic Outlook Autumn 2023 provides a comprehensive analysis of the UK economy's performance and outlook. Below is a concise summary of the main points.

Macroeconomic Outlook

• GDP Growth: The UK economy is expected to experience sluggish growth in 2023 and 2024, with projections at 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. The forecast accounts for ongoing monetary policy tightening, which continues to dampen demand.
• Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is projected to fall but remain above the 2% target until late 2025, with Bank of England interest rates peaking at 5.25% and not expected to be cut until late 2024.
• Productivity and Investment: Anemic productivity growth and low public and business investment persist, contributing to slow wage growth and distributional challenges, particularly affecting lower-income households and deprived regions.
• Fiscal Policy: Fiscal rules are focused on reducing debt, with limited fiscal space for tax cuts in 2024. However, there is potential to increase public investment towards 3% of GDP to stimulate growth.
• Monetary Policy: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to delay interest rate cuts due to uncertainties in inflation dynamics, aiming to maintain an inflation-targeting stance.

Challenges and Risks

• Regional Disparities: London and the South-East show higher productivity and growth, while regions like the Midlands and Northern England lag behind. Addressing skills gaps, local capital markets, and institutional ecologies is crucial for levelling up.
• Public Confidence: Confidence in the Bank of England's ability to control inflation has reached a historical low, potentially impacting policy credibility and inflation expectations.
• Key Risks: The outlook faces significant risks from global financial conditions, geopolitical events, and persistent wage-inflation dynamics, which could lead to further GDP contractions or prolonged stagnation.

Concluding Reflections

• Recommendations: The UK needs a renewed vision for national renewal, including sustained public investment in infrastructure, housing, and skills, as well as targeted reforms to address inequalities and boost productivity. The Autumn Statement should prioritize cushioning hard-hit households and regions.

For fuller details, refer to the National Institute UK Economic Outlook Autumn 2023 report.