世界银行-坦桑尼亚经济更新：坦桑尼亚财政政策的效率和有效性（英）-2023-90页_3mb

The Efficiency and Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Tanzania (Economic Update Issue 19, 2023)

Tanzania's economy moderated slightly in 2022, with GDP growth at 4.6%. Growth is supported by services and manufacturing sectors, but vulnerable to external factors like climate and terms of trade. Inflation stayed below the central bank target (5%), averaging 4.3% in 2022, while external factors, including food price increases, amplified price pressures.

The fiscal deficit approached 4.4% of GDP in 2022/23, with revenues declining slightly while expenditures remained constrained. Tax-to-GDP ratios remain low by international standards, but gains were made in revenue collection previously. Improving tax administration, broadening the VAT base, and rationalizing excise duties are identified as priority reform areas to improve revenue mobilization.

The special focus analysis reveals significant inefficiencies, particularly in education and healthcare, measured through Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Recommendations include strengthening VAT administration, reforming tax systems for greater progressivity, improving budget execution, and using revenue gains for social transfers like conditional cash transfers (CCTs).

From the perspectives of experts like Saadia Refaqat, key recommendations include enhancing tax administration capacity and revenue collection, strategically reforming tax systems for better progressivity, strengthening public financial management, and consolidating human capital investments. This holistic approach aims to boost economic potential while ensuring equitable growth and aligning with Tanzania's broader development goals.