世界银行-保加利亚公共财政评论2023（英）-2023.12-90页_880kb
报告摘要
- Fiscal Discipline and Challenges: Bulgaria maintains relatively low public debt (below 30% of GDP) due to fiscal discipline and robust growth, but medium-term consolidation is needed, especially with eurozone accession targets. Remaining crisis support measures and slow adjustment risks fiscal pressures.
- VAT Gap: Bulgaria’s VAT gap (6.3% of total liability in 2020) is average, but revenue potential is untapped through audits and compliance improvements. Medium and large businesses, certain sectors (e.g., services), and specific regions (northwest) show higher noncompliance.
- Education Spending: Despite increased funding, education spending efficiency is low. Learning outcomes did not improve, indicating inefficiencies. A shift to output-based financing and performance-linked budgets could enhance effectiveness.
- Social Spending: Bulgaria’s fiscal system reduces inequality but has limited impact on child poverty due to indirect taxes. Targeted cash transfers, conditional tax deductions, and adjusted child benefits could further reduce child poverty.
- Public Procurement: Inefficient procurement processes could save up to 5.3% of contract value (€700 million), primarily by increasing bidder numbers, improving SME participation, and optimizing tender timelines.
- Aging Population: Rising pension and healthcare costs due to aging could increase debt-to-GDP ratio, necessitating reforms in retirement ages, healthcare financing, and fiscal sustainability frameworks.
- Fiscal Risks: State guarantees, natural disasters, and procyclical fiscal tightening pose risks. Strengthening preventive systems and ensuring disciplined fiscal consolidation are critical.
- Key Recommendations: Reinforce revenue collection, improve spending effectiveness, phase out blanket subsidies, enhance procurement efficiency, and address demographic pressures through structural reforms.
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