2023-10-26-世界银行-坦桑尼亚经济更新_坦桑尼亚财政政策的效率和有效性（英）_90页_3mb

Summary

Executive Summary
Tanzania’s economy grew at 4.7% in 2022 and is expected to expand to 5.1% in 2023. Public debt remains high at 43.8% of GDP, but the risk of debt distress is moderate due to management reforms. The country has significantly improved its tax-to-GDP ratio, reaching around 12%, and plans further reforms to boost revenue mobilization. Previous government programs have helped reduce inequality but slightly increased poverty. The special focus examines fiscal policy efficiency, including tax system evaluation and public expenditure effectiveness.

Recent Economic Developments
Inflation rose to 4.3% in 2022 but remains below regional averages. Expenditure arrears, which reached Tsh 3.2 trillion by end-FY2021/22, continue to challenge fiscal management. Public spending increased from 18.2% of GDP in FY2022/23 to a planned 21.1% for FY2023/24. Key growth sectors included services and mining.

Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks
Global growth slowed to 2.1% in 2023, creating external risks for Tanzania. Projections see GDP growth averaging 5.8% over the medium term, partly driven by agricultural and service expansion. The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow gradually, supported by budget consolidation and improved revenue collection.

Efficiency of Fiscal Policy
Tanzania’s fiscal system is progressive, reducing inequality from a Gini coefficient of 0.45 before fiscal interventions to 0.34 afterward. The main challenges include suboptimal tax collection (e.g., VAT and CIT productivity gaps), high arrears, and weaknesses in revenue administration. Lagging peer countries, Tanzania can improve efficiency through broadening the tax base and enhancing compliance mechanisms.

Concluding Recommendations
Priority reforms need to focus on improving tax revenue mobilization, especially expanding VAT coverage and reforming CIT/PIT, to increase debt space. Effective public spending, such as improving PFM systems and reducing vulnerabilities in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), should be pursued. Progress in human capital development through investment in health and education is necessary for sustainable growth.

Annex Overview

• Macroeconomic Indicators: Includes data on GDP, monetary aggregates, tax gaps, and revenue-to-GDP ratios.
• Zanzibar Economic Synopsis: Highlights tourism-driven growth with challenges in fiscal balances.
• Public Expenditure and Revenue: Details public spending by sector and composition, noting recurrent and capital allocation.
• Efficiency Benchmarks: Uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to assess effectiveness in health and education spending, pointing out inefficiency in public expenditure.

This summary provides a comprehensive analysis of Tanzania’s fiscal policy and key reforms, allowing for quick reference to action points.