2009年-世界发展银行全球_Economic_and_Poverty_Impacts_of_Agricultural_Trade_and_Factor_Market_Reforms_in_China_43页_646kb

Summary of Economic and Poverty Impacts of Agricultural, Trade and Factor Market Reforms in China

Core Content

This paper investigates the economic and poverty impacts of agricultural, trade, and factor market reforms in China, with a particular focus on the interaction between domestic and global reforms. It is part of a broader research initiative on agricultural price distortions, led by Kym Anderson of the World Bank, and is based on the most recent data and models.

Main Findings

• Trade Reforms: Trade liberalization in the rest of the world (ROW) and in China (DOM) can reduce poverty and inequality. However, unilateral trade reforms in China (DOM) may lead to a small increase in poverty.
• Agricultural Distortions: Agricultural price distortions significantly affect the distributional and poverty outcomes of trade reform packages, even though their impact on aggregate trade and welfare is relatively small.
• Factor Market Reforms: Reforms in factor markets, especially those aimed at improving labor mobility, can have substantial benefits for rural households. These include land market reforms, hukou system reforms, and enhancements in off-farm labor mobility.
• Combined Reforms: A comprehensive reform package that includes both commodity and factor market reforms can benefit all household groups in China.

Key Information

Agricultural Sector's Role in Poverty and Inequality

• China's agricultural sector has historically been a major driver of poverty reduction.
• Despite significant economic growth, rural-urban income inequality remains high, with the urban-rural income ratio at 2.58 in 2007.
• The rural-urban wage gap is widening, and rural-urban migration is a key factor in this trend.
• The hukou system imposes transaction costs on rural-urban migrants, contributing to the wage gap.

Labor Market Distortions

• Labor mobility between rural and urban areas is constrained by institutional barriers such as the hukou system and land tenure arrangements.
• The model incorporates a constant elasticity of transformation (CET) to capture the impact of these distortions on labor allocation.
• The CET parameter is estimated at 2.67 for the total rural labor force, with higher elasticity for more skilled labor.

Rural-Urban Migration

• Rural-urban migration is a significant component of China's labor market.
• In 2003, 19.4% of rural workers were migratory, and over 40% of households had at least one migrant.
• The wage gap between urban and rural areas is substantial, with a ratio of 2.27 in 2002.
• Transaction costs associated with migration are estimated to be around 81% of the observed wage gap, with the hukou system accounting for only 28% of this difference.

Production and Trade Modeling

• The study uses a nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function to model the economy.
• The model assumes constant returns to scale and incorporates both domestic and international trade reforms.
• The Armington assumption is used to differentiate domestic and foreign products in trade modeling.
• The law of one price holds for export markets, but import prices are endogenous and determined by global trade liberalization.

Benchmark Data

• A Chinese Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2002 is used as the base for model calibration.
• The SAM includes 48 sectors and 100 representative households.
• Agricultural sectors are disaggregated into eight crop and four livestock sectors based on GTAP classifications.
• China's tariff structure provides more protection for food and agricultural products than for non-food manufacturing goods.

Simulation Scenarios

• ROW-Ag: Elimination of agricultural subsidies and tariffs in the rest of the world.
• ROW: Broader trade liberalization across all merchandise in the rest of the world.
• DOM-Ag: Elimination of agricultural tariffs and subsidies in China.
• DOM: Trade liberalization in all non-agricultural sectors in China.
• LABOR: Relaxation of the hukou system, reducing transaction costs.
• LAND: Land market reform allowing rural households to retain land returns through rental, thus facilitating off-farm labor mobility.

Economic Impacts

• Trade Volume: Both ROW and DOM scenarios lead to increased trade volumes in China.
• Welfare and Terms of Trade: Broad-based trade liberalization improves China's terms of trade, while unilateral liberalization has a smaller effect.
• Sectoral Price Changes: Export prices in food and agricultural sectors increase, while import prices for oilseeds decline due to the elimination of export taxes in Argentina.
• Poverty and Inequality: The combination of commodity and factor market reforms is most effective in reducing poverty and inequality.

Conclusion

The study highlights the importance of both trade and factor market reforms in reducing poverty and inequality in China. While trade liberalization in the rest of the world and China's domestic reforms can lead to significant economic benefits, the effectiveness of these reforms is heavily influenced by the structure of the labor market and the presence of institutional barriers such as the hukou system and land tenure arrangements. A comprehensive reform package that addresses these distortions can lead to more equitable outcomes across different household groups.