2009年-世界发展银行全球_Agricultural_Trade_Reform_and_Poverty_in_Thailand___A_General_Equilibrium_Analysis_24页_554kb

Summary: Agricultural Trade Reform and Poverty in Thailand

Core Content

This paper presents a general equilibrium analysis of the effects of agricultural trade liberalization on poverty in Thailand. It explores both unilateral and global trade reform scenarios, using the JamlongThai model of the Thai economy and the LINKAGE global model to simulate the economic and distributional impacts of trade policy changes. The study concludes that across-the-board trade liberalization is poverty-reducing in Thailand, regardless of whether other countries participate. However, liberalization in agricultural products alone has mixed effects, with farm households experiencing increased poverty and non-farm households seeing slight reductions.

Main Points

• Trade Liberalization: The paper assesses the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality in Thailand, considering both domestic and global policy changes.
• Modeling Approach: The JamlongThai model is a 65-sector, 200-household general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the Thai economy. It is based on the 2000 input-output table and the Socio-Economic Survey data.
• Agricultural Distortions: Thailand has historically protected its agricultural industries, particularly in sugar and palm oil, through export taxes, subsidies, and domestic policies. These distortions have limited the competitiveness of Thai agricultural exports and affected the income distribution.
• Poverty Line Sensitivity: The poverty reduction effects are not dependent on the specific poverty line used. The study compares the Thai government's poverty line and the international $2 a day poverty line at purchasing power parity.
• Macroeconomic Impacts: Trade liberalization leads to increases in real GDP and aggregate household consumption. However, it also affects factor returns differently, with agricultural capital and land seeing reduced returns, while non-agricultural capital and skilled labor benefit.
• Income Inequality: Liberalization increases inequality, as skilled labor gains more in real wages than unskilled labor. Despite this, the poor benefit significantly from trade liberalization, especially within Thailand.

Key Findings

Unilateral Trade Liberalization (Simulation A1)

• Reduces poverty across all household categories.
• Raises real wages for both skilled and unskilled labor.
• Increases real returns to non-agricultural capital.
• Reduces returns to agricultural capital and land.
• Reduces inequality in real wages and factor returns, but increases inequality in the overall distribution of real expenditures.
• Most beneficial to Thailand in macroeconomic terms compared to global liberalization.

Global Trade Liberalization (Simulation C1)

• Poverty reduction is still significant in Thailand, though only one-fifth of the reduction is attributed to liberalization in other countries.
• Dominates the effects of unilateral liberalization, suggesting that domestic reforms have a stronger impact.
• Increases inequality in real wages and factor returns, but poverty incidence still declines.

Agricultural Market Liberalization (Simulation A2)

• Raises poverty incidence among farm households due to reduced real returns to unskilled labor and agricultural capital.
• Slightly reduces poverty among non-farm households.
• Reduces real unskilled wages, which negatively affects rural poor.
• Only beneficial for Thai farm poor if other countries also liberalize agricultural trade.

Comparison with Indonesia

• Similar modeling frameworks are used for both countries.
• Thailand’s agricultural protection is more skilled labor biased, whereas Indonesia’s is more unskilled labor biased.
• Unilateral liberalization reduces poverty in both countries, but Thailand’s poor benefit more in terms of absolute numbers.
• Global liberalization has greater poverty-reducing effects in Indonesia, as poor households are more reliant on agricultural production.
• Unilateral agricultural liberalization leads to urban poverty reduction and rural poverty increase in Thailand, but reduces poverty in all socio-economic groups in Indonesia.

Conclusion

• Across-the-board trade liberalization is poverty-reducing in Thailand, even if other countries do not liberalize.
• Agricultural liberalization alone is not beneficial for farm households in Thailand and only reduces poverty if global liberalization is also implemented.
• Poverty reduction is more effective in Thailand than in Indonesia, due to the structure of agricultural protection and the role of unskilled labor.
• Skilled labor and non-agricultural capital benefit the most from liberalization, while agricultural capital and land suffer.
• Poverty incidence is a strong indicator of the distributional effects of trade policy reform in Thailand.

Key Information

• Model: JamlongThai (65 sectors, 200 households) and LINKAGE (global model).
• Data Sources: 2000 Socio-Economic Survey, input-output tables, and National Accounts.
• Poverty Lines: Thai government line and $2 a day at PPP.
• Policy Scenarios:
  • Simulation A: Unilateral liberalization in Thailand.
  • Simulation B: Global liberalization excluding Thailand.
  • Simulation C: Global liberalization including Thailand.
• Agricultural Protection: Sugar and palm oil are highly protected, while rice and maize are not.
• Impact on Labor: Unskilled labor is more affected by agricultural liberalization, while skilled labor benefits.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Shows the cost structure of major industries in Thailand, highlighting the intensity of unskilled labor in agriculture.
• Table 2: Summarizes factor income sources for each household category.
• Table 3: Shows the importance of each household category in the overall population and poverty incidence.
• Table 4: Lists the initial rates of industry assistance in Thailand.
• Table 5: Summarizes changes in border prices from global liberalization.
• Table 6: Macroeconomic effects of liberalizing all goods.
• Table 7: Poverty and inequality effects of all goods liberalization.
• Table 8: Macroeconomic effects of agricultural liberalization.
• Table 9: Poverty effects of agricultural liberalization.

This analysis underscores the complex interplay between trade policy, factor returns, and poverty in Thailand, with significant implications for policy design and international cooperation.