2009年-世界发展银行全球_Impacts_of_Trade_Liberalization_on_Poverty_and_Inequality_in_Argentina_46页_652kb

Summary: Impacts of Trade Liberalization on Poverty and Inequality in Argentina

Core Content

This working paper analyzes the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality in Argentina, with a special focus on export taxes. The study uses a combination of global and national models to assess the economic and social impacts of both domestic and international trade reforms.

Main Points

• Context of Trade Liberalization: Argentina is a unique case as a large agricultural exporter that has historically applied export taxes on various agricultural products. The most recent episode began in early 2002 following a severe economic crisis.

• Economic Crisis of 2001-02: Argentina faced a deep recession, high unemployment, and a significant drop in GDP. The government imposed export taxes to stabilize fiscal accounts and mitigate the negative effects of devaluation on domestic food prices and real wages.

• Impact of Export Taxes: The paper argues that export taxes have played a role in stabilizing the economy by increasing fiscal revenues and reducing the fiscal deficit. However, the removal of export taxes alone does not lead to improvements in poverty and inequality indicators.

• Trade Liberalization Effects: Liberalization of world trade (including subsidies and import taxes, but excluding export taxes) has a positive effect on reducing poverty and inequality in Argentina. This is due to the improved terms of trade and increased competitiveness of domestic industries.

• Methodology: The study combines results from a global economy-wide CGE model (World Bank's Linkage model), a national CGE model, and microsimulation models. The global model provides exogenous shocks to the national model, which are then used to simulate micro-level poverty and inequality outcomes.

• Microsimulation Approach: The microsimulation model uses the Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) data to estimate individual-level impacts of trade reforms. It incorporates labor market changes, wage adjustments, and changes in the poverty line based on the CGE results.

Key Findings

• Poverty and Inequality Trends: From 2002 to 2007, Argentina experienced a significant reduction in poverty and extreme poverty, with rates dropping from 58% and 28% to 23% and 8%, respectively. Income distribution also improved, with the top-decile to bottom-decile ratio decreasing from 32 to 26.

• Role of Export Taxes: Export taxes were introduced to help stabilize the economy during the crisis, but their removal could have negative effects on fiscal accounts and macroeconomic stability. The paper suggests that export taxes may have helped moderate the impact of devaluation on domestic prices and wages.

• Sectoral Adjustments: The national CGE model highlights the importance of exchange rate adjustments and the role of export taxes in moderating domestic food prices. The model also shows that the combination of export taxes, lower energy prices, and improved international prices contributed to a strong supply-side response from the agricultural sector.

• Limitations and Caveats: The paper acknowledges that the impact of export taxes on agricultural growth is not fully clear. It also notes that the analysis does not explore the potential negative social consequences of removing export taxes, such as possible protests over food prices.

Methodology Overview

• Global Linkage Model: Used to simulate the effects of rest-of-world trade policies on Argentina's terms of trade and export demand. It is calibrated to the GTAP version 7 database (2004) and incorporates agricultural distortions from the World Bank database.

• National CGE Model: Based on a 2005 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) with 24 activities and 26 commodities. It includes a representative household, government, and rest of the world, with 8 factors of production.

• Microsimulation Model: Utilizes EPH data to estimate individual-level impacts. It incorporates labor market changes, wage adjustments, and changes in the poverty line. Two approaches are used: random sampling and econometric modeling.

Conclusion

• The study concludes that trade liberalization, particularly in non-agricultural sectors, has contributed to reducing poverty and inequality in Argentina. However, the inclusion of export taxes in the liberalization package is crucial, as their removal could have negative implications for fiscal stability and social sustainability.

• The paper emphasizes the need for a more integrated evaluation of trade policies using general equilibrium models and microsimulation techniques to better understand their effects on poverty and inequality. It also suggests areas for further research, including the long-term impact of export taxes and the role of other trade policies in economic recovery.