2015年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan_Trade_Report___Improving_the_Trade_Policy_Framework_36页_1mb

Kazakhstan Trade Report Summary

Core Content

This report, titled "Kazakhstan Trade Report", is a policy note from the World Bank, published in June 2015, focusing on the trade policy framework of Kazakhstan. It examines the impact of Kazakhstan's membership in the Customs Union (CU) and its potential accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), as well as the implications of pursuing new Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). The report also discusses the evolving trade dynamics, import and export patterns, and the broader economic implications of these policy choices.

Key Findings and Main Points

1. Trade Policy Environment

• Kazakhstan operates in a complex trade policy environment influenced by the Customs Union, WTO accession negotiations, and other global trade changes.
• The report is a response to previous analyses, including a 2012 trade report on Kazakhstan: Taking Advantage of Trade and Openness for Development and an Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs Union for Kazakhstan.

2. Export Performance

• Exports are still dominated by hydrocarbons, particularly petroleum products, and are driven by EU demand, China, and other ECA countries.
• The export concentration increased significantly after the 2008 crisis, with the number of exported products dropping from 779 in 2006–07 to 574 in 2010–11.
• Kazakhstan's export market penetration index (IEMP) is 5%, indicating a lower level of market diversification compared to Russia (10%).
• The export performance is largely attributed to higher global petroleum prices rather than improved product competitiveness.

3. Import Dynamics

• Imports are driven by global dynamics, with a shift from the EU to China observed since 2005.
• In the 2010–11 period, there was a significant surge in imports from CU partners, but this trend appears to be abating.
• The import composition is heavily concentrated in minerals, machinery and electronics, metals, and transportation, which together account for 64–66% of imports from the CU.
• China has gained a stronger foothold in many HS-2 categories, while the EU has seen a decline, especially in machinery and electronics.

4. WTO Accession Implications

• Joining the WTO with the Russian tariff schedule is expected to reverse the tariff increases associated with the Customs Union.
• By 2016, the average weighted tariff rates would return close to 2009 pre-CU levels, leading to aggregate welfare gains of 0.1% of GDP per year.
• Sectoral impacts vary: tradable goods industries may lose, while services are expected to gain.
• Labor and capital earnings are projected to increase modestly by 0.5–0.6% per year.
• If trade facilitation costs are reduced by 30%, the welfare gains could increase to 0.9% of GDP per year, with labor and capital incomes rising by 1.8% and 1.1%, respectively.

5. Intermediate Imports and Productivity

• The Customs Union has increased tariff levels on intermediate inputs, potentially affecting knowledge and technology content.
• Accession to the WTO could offset these negative impacts, helping to maintain productivity growth.
• However, the authorities must remain vigilant about the knowledge content of imports to support technological upgrading.

6. FTA Considerations

• Kazakhstan should carefully assess any proposal for new FTAs, as they can be complex and prone to failure.
• The report outlines a working agenda for potential FTAs, emphasizing the need for analysis of benefits and costs and capacity building.
• It recommends an FTA design that includes:
  • Low external MFN tariffs
  • Few sectoral and product exemptions
  • Nonrestrictive rules of origin
  • Measures to facilitate trade

7. Priority Actions

• Finalize the WTO accession process with a more liberal tariff schedule than Russia’s.
• Address remaining negotiation topics such as the services agreement, SPS and TBT regulations, state-owned enterprises, subsidies, discriminatory VAT preferences, and natural persons’ treatment.
• Assess the economic impacts of FTAs before engaging in negotiations.
• Implement measures to reduce non-tariff barriers and trade facilitation costs.

Conclusion

• Kazakhstan's trade policy framework is critical for its economic development, especially in light of its 2050 development goals.
• The WTO accession offers welfare gains and the potential to rebalance trade dynamics, especially if it is accompanied by trade facilitation improvements.
• Diversification of the economy and export base is essential to reduce export concentration and enhance long-term productivity.
• Careful planning and analysis are required before entering new FTAs, and institutional capacity building is necessary for effective trade policy implementation.

Key Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Exports to select partners (2011–2013)
• Table 2: Kazakhstan's exports have become more concentrated since the 2008 crisis
• Table 3: Imports from select partners (2011–2013)
• Table 4: Change in import shares in Kazakhstani market since the Customs Union
• Table 5: Imports from and exports to CU partners (HS2 categories, 2007–2012)
• Figure 1: Exports are still driven by petroleum products and dominated by EU and China
• Figure 2: Imports are still driven by global dynamics

Annexes

• Annex I: Kazakhstan Exports and Imports Patterns
• Annex II: Impact of Accession to the WTO with the Same Schedule as Russia
• Annex III: Central Asian Countries Membership in Various FTAs (as of Mid-2013)
• Annex IV: European Union's Assessment Methodology for Free Trade Agreements