2012年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan___Taking_Advantage_of_Trade_and_Openness_for_Development_128页_1mb

Kazakhstan: Taking Advantage of Trade and Openness for Development

Core Content

This report, part of the Joint Economic Research Program between the Government of Kazakhstan (GOK) and the World Bank (WB), analyzes Kazakhstan's trade performance, regional and international integration, and the need for policy reforms to enhance competitiveness and promote sustainable development. It outlines strategies for improving trade outcomes and building a more dynamic and diversified economy.

Main Views

1. Economic Growth and Development

• Kazakhstan has experienced rapid economic growth over the past decade, with GDP per capita reaching US$11,245 in 2011, placing it among the world's top 10 middle-income countries.
• Per-capita income has increased significantly, and poverty has been reduced from 46.7% in 2001 to 5.4% in 2011, a remarkable achievement.
• The economy is heavily dependent on natural resources, especially oil and minerals, which have driven growth but also exposed the country to external shocks and price volatility.

2. Trade Performance

• Kazakhstan's export basket has become increasingly concentrated around natural resource exports, with over 70% of merchandise exports in energy and minerals.
• Non-resource exports are also becoming more concentrated in a few major products, which limits diversification and competitiveness.
• Service exports have grown, particularly in transport and travel, but their share in GDP and total trade remains low.
• Services trade deficit is large, especially in modern business services, and non-tradable services are being imported in increasing volumes, reflecting the need for domestic development in these areas.

3. Trade Integration and Challenges

• Kazakhstan is a member of the Customs Union (CU) with Russia and Belarus, and is pursuing WTO accession.
• The CU has shifted trade patterns toward its members, especially Russia, and increased the import of intermediate inputs.
• The Common External Tariff (CET) has led to higher trade barriers with the rest of the world, limiting export diversification and competitiveness.
• The CU's technical regulations are often not aligned with international standards, creating confusion and inefficiencies in trade.

4. Policy Recommendations

• The report recommends four key areas for policy reform:
  1. Balancing regional and international integration to maximize benefits from the CU and WTO.
  2. Shifting from targeted sector support to cross-cutting trade-enabling reforms to build competitive goods sectors.
  3. Promoting competition and openness in the services sector to enhance efficiency and productivity.
  4. Developing a comprehensive trade and competitiveness agenda with strong institutional support.

Key Information

Trade Concentration and Productivity

• Kazakhstan's export basket is highly concentrated, especially in resource-based products, which limits economic resilience and diversification.
• Non-resource exports are also becoming more concentrated, with fewer products and lower complexity.
• Product survival rates are low, indicating that market access and supply-side constraints are impeding diversification and competitiveness.
• Specialization in less complex products is reducing the potential for quality differentiation and market leadership.

Trade Facilitation and Logistics

• Logistics performance in Kazakhstan has declined despite some improvements, with the country ranked 176th out of 183 in the World Bank's Doing Business indicators.
• Trade facilitation is critical for improving access to inputs and markets, and for enhancing competitiveness.
• Infrastructure upgrades are underway, but quality and efficiency of logistics services still need improvement.

Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs)

• Kazakhstan's NTM framework is not aligned with international standards, and technical regulations are often not in line with best practices.
• NTMs are a major constraint on trade and investment, especially for non-tradable services.
• Reforms in NTMs and trade facilitation are essential to compensate for the welfare loss from increased tariff protection in the CU.

Services Sector

• The services sector is a key driver of job creation and economic growth, but it is underdeveloped and not competitive.
• Backbone services such as telecommunications and transport are expensive and inefficient.
• Modern services have limited presence in the export basket, and domestic service providers are not well-developed.
• Skills and knowledge are critical for enhancing competitiveness in services, and FDI is necessary to support development.

Conclusions

• Kazakhstan has made significant progress in reducing poverty and increasing per-capita income, but economic diversification and competitiveness remain key challenges.
• Regional integration through the Customs Union and planned Common Economic Space is important, but must be balanced with international integration.
• Reforms in trade policy, NTMs, and trade facilitation are necessary to improve competitiveness and promote sustainable development.
• Building a competitive services sector is critical for economic growth and job creation, especially in modern and high-quality services.

Summary of Key Reforms

• Tariff Policy: Adjust to align with international standards and support non-traditional exports.
• Non-Tariff Measures: Reform to reduce barriers and align with global standards.
• Trade Facilitation: Improve logistics performance and reduce delays at customs and borders.
• Services Sector: Promote competition and openness, and support skills development.

Strategic Recommendations

• WTO accession should be used to drive overall reform and increase openness.
• Leadership in CU reform is needed to enhance competitiveness and attract FDI.
• Cross-cutting trade-enabling efforts are more effective than sector-specific interventions.
• Institutional capacity must be developed to support trade policy analysis and implementation.

This report emphasizes the importance of trade and openness in driving economic development, while also highlighting the need for structural reforms to enhance competitiveness and sustain growth.