2018年Q4全球经济预测（英文版）_33页_7mb

报告摘要

Global Economic Forecasts Summary - Q4 2018

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of global and country-specific economic forecasts for Q4 2018, highlighting the global economic slowdown, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks affecting growth and inflation.

Global Economic Outlook

Global Real GDP Growth: Projected to peak in 2018 at 3.8%, then decline to 3.5% in 2019-2020.
Advanced Economies: Real GDP growth is expected to remain strong in 2018 at 2.3%, but decline to 1.8-2.0% in 2019-2020 due to trade tensions and worse-than-expected performance.
Emerging Economies: Growth is forecasted at 5.0% in 2018 and to slow to 4.8% in 2019-2020, impacted by trade and financing conditions, and lower investor confidence in countries like Argentina and Turkey.
Global Risk Outlook: Deteriorated since August, with increased risks of trade barriers, political instability, and financial market volatility. The Global Downturn and Emerging Markets Slowdown scenarios are highlighted, with the US-China All-Out Trade War being the most probable adverse scenario.

Key Countries

United States

GDP Growth: Upgraded to 2.9% in 2018, but downgraded to 2.4% in 2019 due to escalating trade tensions with China.
Inflation: Forecast at 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019.
Federal Funds Rate: Expected to rise to 1.8% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019.
Risk Factors: Trade tensions with China, diminishing fiscal stimulus effects.

Eurozone

GDP Growth: Forecast at 2.0% in 2018, then to 1.8% in 2019.
Inflation: Expected to rise to 1.7% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019.
ECB Refinancing Rate: Maintained at 0.0% in 2018 and 0.0% in 2019.
Risk Factors: Deteriorating financial markets, political uncertainty, and trade tensions.

United Kingdom

GDP Growth: Upgraded to 1.4% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019, aided by warm weather and improved consumer sentiment.
Inflation: Forecast at 2.5% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019.
Risk Factors: Lingering Brexit uncertainty, weak export growth, and possible chaotic Brexit.

Japan

GDP Growth: Maintained at 1.1% in 2018 and 1.0% in 2019.
Inflation: Expected to rise to 2.1% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.
Risk Factors: Slowing global economy, China-US trade war, and natural disasters.

China

GDP Growth: Forecast at 6.6% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2019, consistent with a soft landing.
Inflation: Expected to rise to 2.1% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.
Risk Factors: Rising trade tensions with the US, which have worsened the outlook.

Brazil

GDP Growth: Downgraded to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019 due to weak Q3 data and tighter monetary policy.
Inflation: Expected to remain near the target of 4.5% in 2018-2019.
Risk Factors: Uneven recovery, lack of policy measures, and political uncertainty.

Russia

GDP Growth: Forecast at 1.7% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.
Inflation: Expected to rise to 2.8% in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.
Risk Factors: Oil price fluctuations, weak ruble, and fading World Cup effects.

Key Trends and Risks

Trade Tensions: US-China trade war has escalated, with 10% tariffs on 200 billion USD in Chinese imports in September 2018, and a potential increase to 25% in 2019. This has raised concerns about global economic growth.
Brexit Uncertainty: Continues to dampen business investment and economic growth in the UK.
Geopolitical Risks: Increased likelihood of US-China All-Out Trade War, Global Trade War, and Eurozone Crisis scenarios.
Inflation Dynamics: Inflation is expected to rise in many economies, driven by higher oil prices, increased fuel costs, and other external factors.
Interest Rates: Advanced economies are expected to see a gradual increase in interest rates, with the ECB and other central banks likely to follow suit.

Scenario Descriptions

Scenario	Description
Global Downturn	Trade wars and populist policies reduce private confidence and financial stability.
Emerging Markets Slowdown	Protectionism, slower trade growth, and domestic confidence decline.
Global Crisis	Major trade war leads to stock market crashes, reduced consumer spending.
China Hard Landing	Banking crisis and credit tightening in China.
Eurozone Recession	Geopolitical and EU break-up risks reduce investment and lead to exits.
US-China Trade War	Bilateral tariff increases between the US and China.
No-Deal Brexit	UK leaves the EU without a trade deal, leading to higher trade barriers.
Eurozone Crisis	Sovereign debt turmoil, reduced confidence, and possible exits of Italy/Greece.
Global Trade War	Escalation of US-China trade conflict with broader tariff increases.
Trump Adverse Policies	Tariffs, immigration restrictions, and stock market declines.
Korean Conflict	Escalated tensions with potential military actions, leading to market sell-offs.

Summary of Forecast Revisions

Country	2017 %	2018 (F) %	2019 (F) %	2020 (F) %	2021-2025 AVERAGE (F) %	2018 Forecast Change	2019 Forecast Change
US	2.2	2.9	2.4	2.0	1.6	+0.2	-0.2
Canada	3.0	2.1	2.0	1.7	1.7	+0.2	+0.2
Japan	1.7	1.1	1.0	0.6	0.7	0.0	0.0
Eurozone	2.5	2.0	1.8	1.6	1.5	-0.1	0.0
France	2.3	1.7	1.7	1.6	1.5	-0.2	-0.1
Germany	2.5	1.8	1.6	1.6	1.1	-0.2	-0.1
Italy	1.6	1.0	0.8	0.9	0.8	-0.2	-0.3
Spain	3.1	2.5	2.3	1.9	1.4	-0.1	0.0
UK	1.7	1.4	1.5	1.4	1.6	+0.2	+0.2
China	6.8	6.6	6.1	5.9	5.3	+0.1	-0.2
India	6.3	7.7	7.6	7.5	7.0	+0.3	+0.1
Brazil	1.1	1.4	2.2	2.4	2.4	-0.5	-0.3
Russia	1.5	1.7	1.5	1.5	1.5	+0.2	-0.2

Inflation Forecasts

Country	2017 %	2018 (F) %	2019 (F) %	2020 (F) %	2021-2025 AVERAGE (F) %	2018 Forecast Change	2019 Forecast Change
US	2.1	2.6	2.4	2.1	2.0	0.0	0.0
Canada	1.6	2.4	2.3	2.0	2.0	0.0	+0.1
Japan	0.5	1.0	1.2	1.6	1.3	0.0	0.0
Eurozone	1.5	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.9	+0.1	0.0
France	1.1	2.0	1.7	1.7	1.8	+0.2	+0.1
Germany	1.8	1.9	1.8	1.8	2.0	0.0	0.0
Italy	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.5	1.7	+0.2	+0.1
Spain	2.0	1.8	1.8	1.8	2.0	0.0	0.0
China	1.6	2.1	2.5	2.5	2.5	0.0	+0.1
India	3.3	4.8	4.9	4.8	4.8	-0.2	0.0
Brazil	3.5	3.6	4.1	4.0	4.0	+0.3	+0.2
Russia	3.7	2.8	4.6	4.2	4.0	+0.2	+0.4

Conclusion

The global economic outlook for Q4 2018 is marked by a cooling down of growth momentum, particularly in advanced economies, and increased risks from trade tensions, political instability, and financial market volatility. Emerging economies are also facing challenges, with the potential for a slowdown or downturn. The US-China trade war is a significant concern, with the possibility of an all-out trade war being the most probable adverse scenario. Despite these challenges, some economies like India are showing signs of recovery, while others such as Japan and Russia are still facing external pressures. The document emphasizes the importance of monitoring these risks and adjusting economic strategies accordingly.

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