2019年Q1全球经济预测（英文版）_35页_10mb

Global Economic Forecasts Q1 2019 Summary

Core Content

Euromonitor International's Global Economic Forecasts Q1 2019 report provides updated macroeconomic projections and scenario analysis for the world's key economies. The report highlights the slowdown in global economic growth, increased risks from trade wars, political uncertainty, and financial conditions, as well as the impact of these factors on GDP growth and inflation across major economies.

Main Points

• Global Economic Growth:

  • Annual global economic growth is expected to slow to 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, down from 3.7% in 2018.
  • Advanced economies are forecasted to grow at 2.0% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.
  • Emerging economies are projected to grow at 4.6% in 2019 and 4.7% in 2020, similar to 2018 levels.

• Trade and Political Risks:

  • World trade growth is expected to weaken in 2019 due to declining globalization and increasing political risks.
  • The report identifies the US-China trade war, Brexit uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions as major risks.

• Key Scenarios and Risk Index:

  • Global Downturn: Risk index increased to 63.
  • Emerging Markets Slowdown: Risk index increased to 39.
  • Global Crisis: Risk index decreased to 34.
  • Eurozone Recession: Risk index at 20.
  • China Hard Landing: Risk index decreased to 20.
  • US-China All-Out Trade War: Risk index at 16.
  • Disorderly No-Deal Brexit: Risk index at 15.
  • Eurozone Crisis: Risk index at 11.
  • Trump Adverse Policies: Risk index at 10.
  • Korean Conflict: Risk index at 9.
  • Global Trade War: Risk index decreased to 9.
  • No-Deal Brexit: Risk index decreased to 7.

Country Highlights

United States

• GDP Growth: Reduced to 2.4% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.
• Inflation: Forecasted at 2.2% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020.
• Federal Funds Rate: Expected to rise to 2.5% in 2019 and 2.9% in 2020.
• Risks: Increased trade and political uncertainty, and the transitory impact of tax cuts.

Eurozone

• GDP Growth: Forecasted at 1.7% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020.
• Inflation: Expected to rise to 1.7% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.
• ECB Refinancing Rate: Projected to increase to 0.4% in 2019 and 1.4% over 2021-2025.
• Risks: Downgrades due to Brexit uncertainty, Italian fiscal policy, and global trade tensions.

United Kingdom

• GDP Growth: Baseline at 1.5% in 2019 and 1.4% in 2020.
• Consumer Confidence: At its lowest since 2013 due to Brexit uncertainty.
• Risks: High uncertainty about Brexit, with the possibility of a no-deal Brexit and a disorderly exit.

Japan

• GDP Growth: Reduced to 0.6% in 2019 and 0.6% in 2020.
• Inflation: Expected to rise to 1.0% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020.
• Risks: Slowing global demand, a strong yen, and weak exports.

China

• GDP Growth: Forecasted at 6.1% in 2019 and 5.9% in 2020.
• Inflation: Expected to rise to 2.3% in 2019 and 2.3% in 2020.
• Risks: Domestic demand slowdown and negative impact from the US-China trade war.

Brazil

• GDP Growth: Unchanged at 2.2% in 2019 and 2.4% in 2020.
• Inflation: Expected to rise to 4.5% in 2019 and 4.4% in 2020.
• Risks: High optimism due to new president Bolsonaro's reform agenda, but also uncertainty about future government actions.

Russia

• GDP Growth: Cut to 1.3-1.4% in 2019-2020.
• Inflation: Expected to rise to 4.6% in 2019 and 4.2% in 2020.
• Risks: Slowing exports, weak domestic demand, and falling oil prices.

Key Information

• GDP Growth Projections:

  • US: 2.4% (2019), 1.7% (2020)
  • Eurozone: 1.7% (2019), 1.6% (2020)
  • UK: 1.5% (2019), 1.4% (2020)
  • Japan: 0.6% (2019), 0.6% (2020)
  • China: 6.1% (2019), 5.9% (2020)
  • Brazil: 2.2% (2019), 2.4% (2020)
  • Russia: 1.3-1.4% (2019-2020)

• Inflation Trends:

  • US: 2.2% (2019), 2.0% (2020)
  • Eurozone: 1.7% (2019), 1.7% (2020)
  • UK: 2.3% (2019), 2.1% (2020)
  • Japan: 1.0% (2019), 1.6% (2020)
  • China: 2.3% (2019), 2.3% (2020)
  • India: 4.6% (2019), 4.7% (2020)
  • Brazil: 4.5% (2019), 4.4% (2020)
  • Russia: 4.6% (2019), 4.2% (2020)

• Major Risks:

  • Trade wars and geopolitical tensions
  • Brexit uncertainty
  • Tightening financial conditions
  • Economic slowdown in China
  • Slowing global demand and oil price fluctuations

Conclusion

The report outlines a generally pessimistic outlook for global economic growth in 2019 and 2020, with advanced economies showing a more pronounced slowdown. Emerging economies, while more stable, face challenges from trade tensions, political uncertainty, and external factors like oil prices. The scenarios presented highlight the potential for global downturns, crises, and regional recessions, emphasizing the need for businesses to monitor and adapt to these evolving macroeconomic conditions.