2021-09-05-牛津经济研究院-APAC_ASEAN_growth_tracker_indicates_weak_start_to_Q3_3页_206kb

报告摘要

ASEAN Growth Tracker Summary: Weak Start to Q3 2021

Overview

The analysis confirms a slowdown in economic momentum for ASEAN-6 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) in July 2021, with a weak start to the third quarter. Growth is expected to worsen due to tight COVID-19 restrictions, low vaccination coverage, and ongoing pandemic risks.

Key Findings

July GDP growth tracker showed 6.4% year-on-year, down from 8% in June, driven by reduced exports, industrial production, and retail sales.
Key positive contributors are exports and industrial production, but with less intensity than earlier in the year. Retail sales and manufacturing (e.g., ASEAN PMI at 44.6 in July) drag on growth.
The tracker is projected to weaken further in August, approaching the Q3 growth forecast of 2.7% year-on-year GDP growth.

Country-specific Insights

Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam: Monthly trackers align with Q3 forecasts, indicating stable but cautious recovery.
Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippines: Tracking suggests lower growth than forecasts, linked to stricter lockdowns and high COVID cases.
Vaccination disparities: Singapore leads with 80% full vaccination; Malaysia at 48%, but highest infection rates; Vietnam lags with under 3% full vaccination.

Risks and Forecasts

Downside risks dominate due to pandemic persistence, low immunity levels, and potential for new COVID variants delaying global and ASEAN recoveries.
Q3 growth forecast lowered; near-term global growth predicted to be reduced below tracker levels.
Economic activity may remain volatile, with delays to recovery until 2022 or even 2023.