2018年Q3全球经济预测（英文版）_33页_8mb

Global Economic Forecasts Summary (Q3 2018)

Core Content Overview

The Q3 2018 Global Economic Forecasts report provides an analysis of global and regional economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and key risks. It highlights the impact of trade tensions, currency fluctuations, and political uncertainties on various economies.

Key Economic Growth Forecasts

Global Outlook

• Emerging economies are expected to grow at a real GDP rate of 5.1% over 2018-2019.
• Global growth risks have increased due to trade protectionism, the potential for a major trade war, and the possibility of a global downturn or crisis.

Country-Specific Forecasts

• United States: Real GDP growth is forecasted at 2.7% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019, driven by fiscal stimulus. Long-term growth is expected to slow to 1.6% in 2021-2025.
• Eurozone: Real GDP growth is forecasted at 2.1% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. The ECB has ended its quantitative easing programme but will maintain rates until late 2019.
• United Kingdom: Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.2% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019. Brexit uncertainty continues to affect the economy.
• Japan: Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.1% in 2018 and 1.0% in 2019. Inflation remains low, and the 2% target is considered unachievable.
• China: Real GDP growth is expected at 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019. The economy is on a path to slow down to 5.3% in 2021-2025.
• Brazil: Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Political uncertainty and a truckers' strike have impacted growth.
• Russia: Real GDP growth is expected at 1.5% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. The rise in oil prices and domestic demand support growth.

Inflation Trends

• Global inflation has been influenced by rising oil prices and trade tensions.
• Advanced economies:
  • US: Inflation forecasted at 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019.
  • Eurozone: Inflation is expected to rise to 1.7% in 2019.
  • UK: Inflation is projected to decrease slightly to 2.4% in 2019.
• Emerging economies:
  • China: Inflation is forecasted to rise to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.
  • India: Inflation is expected to rise to 5.0% in 2018 and 4.9% in 2019.
  • Russia: Inflation is projected to increase to 4.2% in 2019.

Interest Rate Forecasts

• Advanced economies: Interest rates are expected to rise gradually, with the US Federal Funds Rate increasing to 3.3% by 2025.
• BRIC Countries: Interest rates are anticipated to remain relatively low, with Russia's rates expected to rise slightly to 4.0% by 2020.

Key Risks and Scenarios

• Global Downturn: Ranked 1st in the Global Risks Index, with a 58% impact on global GDP. Caused by trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and reduced investor confidence.
• Emerging Markets Slowdown: Ranked 2nd, with a 36% impact. Linked to higher protectionism and slower global trade.
• Global Crisis: Ranked 3rd, with a 25% impact. A combination of a major trade war and global downturn, with a 1–5% probability over a one-year horizon.
• China Hard Landing: Ranked 4th, with a 21% impact. A banking crisis and tightening credit conditions could lead to this scenario.
• Major Trade War: Ranked 5th, with a 21% impact. US tariffs on China and other Asian countries, along with retaliatory measures, pose a significant threat.
• Eurozone Recession: Ranked 6th, with a 19% impact. Uncertainty and reduced investment could lead to a recession.
• No-Deal Brexit: Ranked 7th, with a 14% impact. The UK leaving the EU without a trade deal could cause trade barriers to rise significantly.
• Eurozone Debt Crisis: Ranked 8th, with an 11% impact. Sovereign debt tensions and geopolitical risks could lead to financial market turmoil.
• Korean Conflict: Ranked 9th, with a 9% impact. A potential escalation could affect global trade and security.

Summary of Major Forecast Revisions

• Eurozone: Real GDP growth was downgraded due to slower-than-expected performance and trade-related issues.
• Brazil: Real GDP growth was reduced due to lower-than-expected Q1 performance and political uncertainty.
• Japan: Real GDP growth was downgraded due to weak Q1 performance and trade tensions.
• China: Real GDP growth remained unchanged despite a slowdown in investment.
• Russia: Real GDP growth was slightly revised due to increased oil prices and domestic demand.

Conclusion

The global economic outlook for 2018-2019 is mixed, with some economies performing well due to fiscal stimulus and others facing headwinds from trade tensions, political uncertainty, and financial instability. The report underscores the need for businesses to be prepared for various scenarios, particularly the risk of a global downturn or crisis.