2017年-数据局_普华永道：长远前景2050年全球经济排名将会如何演变_14页_408kb
报告摘要
The Long View: How Will the Global Economic Order Change by 2050?
Summary: The World in 2050
By 2050, the global economic order is expected to undergo significant transformation. Emerging market economies will dominate the world's top 10 economies, with the E7 group (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey) surpassing the G7 (US, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, and Italy) in economic power. The world economy is projected to more than double in size, driven primarily by the rapid growth of emerging markets. The share of world GDP for the E7 is expected to rise from around 35% in 2016 to nearly 50% by 2050, while the G7's share will drop to just over 20%. China is projected to become the largest economy, followed by India and Indonesia, with India overtaking the US in GDP at PPP terms.
Key Findings
- Global Economic Growth: The world economy is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5% from 2016 to 2020, then slow to 2.7%, 2.5%, and 2.4% for the following decades.
- Emerging Markets as Growth Engine: Emerging markets will be the primary drivers of global economic growth. The E7 economies are expected to grow at an average of 3.5% annually, while the G7 will grow at 1.6%.
- Rise of Emerging Economies: By 2050, China and India will be the top two economies by GDP at PPPs, and six of the seven largest economies could be emerging markets.
- Shift in Economic Power: The EU27's share of global GDP will fall below 10%, smaller than India. Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh are expected to be the fastest-growing economies.
- Income Convergence: While advanced economies will maintain higher average incomes, emerging economies will make significant progress in closing the income gap, creating opportunities for businesses.
- Challenges for Emerging Markets: Emerging markets will need structural reforms, diversification away from natural resources, and improved institutions to sustain growth. They must also address short-term economic and political instability.
Challenges for Policymakers
Policymakers in emerging markets face the challenge of implementing structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, infrastructure, and political/legal institutions. These reforms are essential for fostering innovation, entrepreneurship, and long-term economic development. Key challenges include:
- Demographic Shifts: Aging populations in advanced economies will slow growth, while emerging economies will benefit from youthful populations but need to ensure job creation.
- Climate Change and Sustainability: Policies must address environmental concerns and promote sustainable development.
- Global Trade and Inequality: Slowing trade growth and rising inequality highlight the need for diversified economies and inclusive growth strategies.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: Increased geopolitical tensions require resilient and adaptive economic strategies.
Opportunities for Business
Businesses must adopt flexible and patient strategies to succeed in emerging markets. These economies offer significant growth potential and opportunities for long-term investment. Key opportunities include:
- Market Expansion: Emerging markets will grow rapidly and become more attractive for investment as they develop institutions and infrastructure.
- Consumer Growth: As populations become wealthier, there will be a larger and more affluent consumer base.
- Innovation and Adaptation: Companies must adapt their strategies to local preferences and invest in understanding the unique dynamics of these markets.
- Strategic Investment: Engaging with emerging markets is crucial to capturing the bulk of global economic growth by 2050.
Main Economic Projections
Projected GDP at PPP Rankings (2016–2050)
| Rank | 2016 Country | 2016 GDP at PPP (bn) | 2050 Country | Projected GDP at PPP (bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 21269 | China | 58499 |
| 2 | United States | 18562 | India | 44128 |
| 3 | India | 8721 | United States | 34102 |
| 4 | Japan | 4932 | Indonesia | 10502 |
| 5 | Germany | 3979 | Brazil | 7540 |
| 6 | Russia | 3745 | Russia | 7131 |
| 7 | Brazil | 3135 | Mexico | 6863 |
| 8 | Indonesia | 3028 | Germany | 6138 |
| 9 | United Kingdom | 2788 | France | 5369 |
| 10 | France | 2737 | Turkey | 5184 |
Breakdown of Average Real GDP Growth Components (2016–2050)
| Country | Average Population Growth | Average Real GDP Per Capita Growth | Average GDP Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 0.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
| India | 0.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% |
| Bangladesh | 0.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% |
| Pakistan | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% |
| Philippines | 1.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% |
| Nigeria | 2.3% | 1.9% | 4.2% |
| Egypt | 1.4% | 2.6% | 4.1% |
| South Africa | 0.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Indonesia | 0.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% |
| Malaysia | 0.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| Colombia | 0.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Mexico | 0.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% |
| China | -0.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| Turkey | 0.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| Argentina | 0.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% |
| Iran | 0.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| Brazil | 0.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
| Thailand | -0.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| Australia | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| Poland | -0.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| United Kingdom | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| Russia | -0.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| Canada | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% |
| United States | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
| South Korea | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Netherlands | 0.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| France | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Spain | -0.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
| Germany | -0.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| Italy | -0.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Japan | -0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
Conclusion
The global economic order will shift significantly by 2050, with emerging markets leading in GDP growth and economic influence. While advanced economies will remain more affluent, they must adapt to a changing landscape where emerging markets offer substantial opportunities. Businesses and policymakers alike must be prepared with long-term, flexible, and patient strategies to navigate these shifts and harness the potential of the new global economic powerhouses.
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