20151112-招商证券_香港_-CMS_HK__Research_Highlights_12页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

Morning Express Summary

Core Content

This document is a research report from China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd., providing equity research highlights and market analysis for various sectors. The report includes updates on company performance, earnings forecasts, target prices, and upcoming events. It also includes data on stock market indices and exchange rates, along with a research coverage list.

Main Points

GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK)

3QFY15 Performance: In line with expectations; sales volume of polysilicon and wafers increased YoY.
Polysilicon ASP: Continued to fall in October and early November.
Earnings Revision: Adjusted average polysilicon ASP from $17.2/kg to $16.0/kg in FY15E, leading to a revised down forecast for shareholders' profit.
Target Price (TP): Trimmed from HK$1.95 to HK$1.88, representing a FY16E P/E of 10.8x.
Non-Solar Business Disposal: Expected to be completed in December after an EGM on 26 November.

China Lodging (HTHT US)

3Q15 Performance: EBITDA of RMB465mn (+27% YoY, +23% QoQ), beating estimates due to leased hotel performance.
Gross Revenue: Increased 15% YoY to RMB1,600mn, exceeding management guidance.
RevPAR: Narrowed decline to -3% YoY, supported by a 1% YoY increase in ADR, partially offset by a 4ppts drop in occupancy rate.
EBITDA Margin: Improved by 3ppt YoY to 29%.
4Q15 Outlook: Positive with management guidance lifted to 15.5-18.0% YoY net revenue growth.
TP: Maintained at US$29.30, reflecting a 7.0x FY16E EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with historical averages.
Risks: Potential RevPAR downtrend, integration costs from Accor alliance, rent/G&A/personnel cost increases, and RMB depreciation.

Key Information

Market Indices

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 22352, down 0.22%.
Hang Seng Finance Index: Closed at 31206, down 0.58%.
Hang Seng Utilities Index: Closed at 52740, up 1.01%.
Hang Seng Property Index: Closed at 29906, up 0.59%.
HSCEI: Closed at 10245, down 0.67%.
CSI 300: Closed at 3833, up 0.01%.
Shanghai Composite Index: Closed at 3650, up 0.27%.
TWSE: Closed at 8415, down 1.43%.

Global Markets

Brent Oil: Last price at $46.67, down 2.97%.
COMEX Gold: Last price at $1084.0, down 0.41%.
COMEX Copper: Last price at $221.5, down 0.11%.
LME Aluminum: Last price at $1516.0, up 0.53%.
LME Copper: Last price at $4926.0, up 0.01%.
BDI: Last price at 599, down 3.7%.

Exchange Rates

USD/RMB: 6.37, up 0.11%.
USD/HKD: 7.75, down 0.02%.
EUR/USD: 1.07, up 0.2%.
1Y RMB NDF: 6.55, up 0.08%.
3M Libor: 0.36, up 0.14%.
3M Shibor: 3.03, no change.
10Y US T-Note Yield: 2.32, down 1.69%.

What to Watch

Economic Data

Japan: Machinery Orders MM (12 Nov) forecast at 3.30%.
Germany: CPI Final YY (12 Nov) forecast at 0.30%.
Germany: HICP Final YY (12 Nov) forecast at 0.20%.
Euro zone: Industrial Production MM (12 Nov) forecast at 0.1%.
U.S.: Initial Jobless Claims, JOLTS Job Openings, and EIA Weekly Crude Stocks (13 Nov) are upcoming events.
Germany: GDP Flash QQ (forecast at 0.4%).
Euro zone: Eurostat Trade NSA, Eur (forecast at 11.2bn).
Euro zone: GDP Flash Estimate QQ (forecast at 0.4%).
U.S.: PPI Final Demand MM (forecast at 0.1%).

Company Events

2015/11/12: Multiple companies released results, including VTech Holdings Ltd., United Company RUSAL Plc, Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Ltd., and others.

Research Coverage List

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Nov. 11)	12-Month TP	% Upside	Mkt Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2014	EPS 2015E	EPS 2016E	P/E 2014	P/E 2015E	P/E 2016E
Auto & Auto Parts	Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$10.38	HK$12.5	20	6,748	1.07	0.86	0.99	7.7	9.7	8.5
Auto & Auto Parts	China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	HK$3.46	HK$5.48	58	986	0.36	0.42	0.51	7.6	6.6	5.5
Auto & Auto Parts	Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$3.92	HK$4.8	22	4,468	0.16	0.28	0.35	19.4	11.2	9.0
Auto & Auto Parts	BAIC Motor	1958 HK	BUY	HK$7.51	HK$12.81	71	7,274	0.70	0.81	1.07	8.5	7.4	5.7
Auto & Auto Parts	Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	BUY	HK$9.81	HK$12.5	27	11,564	0.88	0.98	1.08	12.6	11.1	10.7
Auto & Auto Parts	Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$17.52	HK$20.0	14	5,670	1.11	1.09	1.17	12.5	12.9	12.1
Auto & Auto Parts	China Harmony Auto	3836 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$6.22	HK$6.7	8	1,264	0.50	0.42	0.45	9.9	11.9	11.2
Auto & Auto Parts	Zhongsheng Group	881 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$0.97	HK$0.83	-14	219	0.05	0.00	0.08	19.4	N.A.	12.1
Oil and Gas	GCL-Poly Energy	3800 HK	BUY	HK$1.57	HK$1.95	24	3,136	0.13	0.13	0.18	12.1	12.1	8.7
Oil and Gas	Xinyi Solar	968 HK	BUY	HK$2.99	HK$4.2	40	254	0.08	0.17	0.27	37.4	17.6	11.1
Port & Shipping	China Merchants Hldg	144 HK	BUY	HK$25.25	HK$32.3	28	8,352	1.59	1.73	1.85	15.9	14.6	13.7
Port & Shipping	Orient Overseas	316 HK	BUY	HK$36.15	HK$55.5	54	2,918	0.43	0.65	0.71	10.9	7.2	6.6
Machinery & Equipment	Zoomlion Heavy	1157 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$2.99	HK$3.22	8	552	0.08	-0.01	0.02	29.6	N.A.	120.7
Machinery & Equipment	Lonking	3339 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.26	HK$1.23	-2	696	0.10	0.05	0.06	10.0	20.2	17.0
Machinery & Equipment	CRSC	3969 HK	BUY	HK$5.94	HK$7.15	20	6,310	0.29	0.31	0.40	20.5	19.2	14.9
Machinery & Equipment	Sany Heavy	631 HK	SELL	HK$1.81	HK$1.36	-25	710	0.06	0.12	0.12	23.9	12.1	12.2

Summary

The report highlights the performance of GCL-Poly Energy and China Lodging, noting that GCL-Poly's 3QFY15 results matched expectations, while its earnings forecast was revised downward due to falling polysilicon ASP. China Lodging exceeded expectations with its EBITDA and gross revenue, driven by leased hotel performance. The TP for GCL-Poly was trimmed to reflect future ASP trends, and the report maintains a BUY rating. The document also includes current market indices, exchange rates, and a detailed research coverage list across various sectors, with ratings, target prices, and EPS projections.

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