20160923-招商证券_香港_-CMS_HK__Research_Highlights_13页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

Stock Price: HK$7.13
Recommendation: BUY
Target Price (TP): HK$11.0
Price-to-Earnings (P/E): 8.4x FY17E
Discount: 24% below historical average
Dividend Yield and Share Repurchase: Potential catalysts for share price growth

Emgrand GL Launch: Launched on September 20, enhancing A-class sedan coverage.
Price Increase: Selling prices of the Emgrand series increased by 11%, potentially improving competitiveness.
Competitive Advantage: Features like safety, style, and smart connectivity give Emgrand GL an edge over joint venture (JV) and other brands.
Orders: Already reached 20,000 units, with potential for the Emgrand series to rank among the top ten A-class sedans.
Sales Forecast: Estimated 2017E sales of Emgrand (Emgrand GL + EC7) to reach nearly 300,000 units.
Growth Projections: 2016-18E net profit (NP) lifted by 5-26% and 2015-18E NP CAGR at 54%.

Interest Rates: Unchanged at 0.25–0.5%.
Reinvestment: Continued reinvestment of QE proceeds, aligning with expectations.
Dissent: Tighter vote with the most dissent since December 2014.
Rate Hike Forecasts: One hike expected in 2016, two in 2017, and three in 2018.
Economic Forecasts:
- 2016 GDP forecast cut to 1.8% YoY.
- PCE inflation cut to 1.3% YoY.
- Unemployment rate raised to 4.8% YoY.
December Rate Hike: Baseline case, with a 59% chance in futures market.
Economic Uncertainty: Weak August data and external risks could delay the hike.

IMF Estimate: China's debt-at-risk ratio at 14%, with US$756bn in loss loans.
Comparison to Official NPLs: IMF's estimate is higher than official figures, raising concerns.
Methodological Issues: Excluded net investment income from EBITDA, possibly understating corporate solvency.
Alternative Estimate: Based on Bloomberg data, China's debt-at-risk ratio could be 9.36%.
Misinterpretation: Confused corporate debts with bank loans and ignored creditor-debtor differences.
No Correlation: No statistically significant correlation between debt-at-risk ratio and bank NPL ratio across countries.

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Sep 22)	TP (12-month)	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$8.84	HK$12.0	36	5,754	0.69	0.71	0.84	10.3	10.1	9.1
China ZhengTong Auto	1728 HK	BUY	HK$2.56	HK$3.5	37	730	0.29	0.39	0.46	7.1	5.3	5.6
Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$7.13	HK$9.0	26	8,126	0.26	0.43	0.61	22.0	13.4	7.7
BAIC Motor	1958 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$8.34	HK$7.3	-12	8,078	0.44	0.65	0.76	15.2	10.4	7.6
Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	BUY	HK$7.61	HK$10.0	31	8,960	0.88	0.94	1.02	6.9	6.5	6.6
Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$21.2	HK$20.0	-6	6,861	1.09	1.16	1.31	15.6	14.8	11.0

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Sep 22)	TP (12-month)	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Sinopec Oilfield Service	1033 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.53	HK$1.4	-8	4,744	0.00	-0.30	0.01	N.A.	N.A.	25.9
China Oilfield Services	2883 HK	SELL	HK$6.43	HK$4.6	-28	3,958	0.23	-1.99	-0.07	22.4	N.A.	N.A.
CNOOC	883 HK	BUY	HK$9.42	HK$12.8	36	54,254	0.45	0.03	0.59	16.8	253.5	13.9
Sinopec Kantons	934 HK	BUY	HK$3.7	HK$4.9	32	1,187	0.41	0.43	0.46	9.0	8.6	8.4

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Sep 22)	TP (12-month)	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
China Resources Land	1109 HK	BUY	HK$23.3	HK$24.8	6	20,833	2.59	2.36	2.71	9.0	9.9	5.4
Yuexiu Property	123 HK	BUY	HK$1.27	HK$1.36	7	2,032	0.10	0.12	0.17	12.7	13.8	12.0
Yuzhou Property	1628 HK	BUY	HK$2.9	HK$3.0	3	1,427	0.54	0.52	0.61	5.4	5.6	4.8
New World Dev	17 HK	BUY	HK$10.32	HK$11.3	9	12,337	0.77	0.66	0.69	13.4	15.6	15.0
Country Garden	2007 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.26	HK$3.4	-20	12,413	0.54	0.56	0.67	7.9	7.6	7.6
Agile Property	3383 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$4.64	HK$4.6	-1	2,345	0.75	0.81	0.92	6.2	5.7	5.0
Aoyuan	3883 HK	BUY	HK$1.86	HK$2.8	51	648	0.35	0.41	0.54	5.3	12.5	23.1

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Sep 22)	TP (12-month)	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
China Telecom	728 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$3.96	HK$4.13	4	7,089	0.25	0.23	0.16	19.4	14.6	12.2
China Unicom	762 HK	BUY	HK$9.09	HK$11.86	30	28,080	0.41	0.30	0.28	15.1	18.8	18.2
JD	JD US	BUY	US$26.3	US$33.0	25	35,978	-0.31	-0.11	1.14	N.A.	N.A.	23.1

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Sep 22)	TP (12-month)	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Datang Renewable Power	1798 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$0.8	HK$0.87	9	258	0.00	0.03	0.11	N.A.	21.5	6.4
Xinjiang Goldwind	2208 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$12.7	HK$13.5	6	4,409	1.13	1.20	1.30	9.0	8.5	8.7
GCL-Poly Energy	3800 HK	BUY	HK$1.11	HK$1.59	43	2,217	0.12	0.14	0.15	9.3	7.9	7.4
Huadian Fuxin Energy	816 HK	BUY	HK$2.0	HK$2.5	25	553	0.22	0.28	0.30	7.3	5.8	4.5
Huaneng Renewables	958 HK	BUY	HK$3.09	HK$3.2	4	3,878	0.19	0.26	0.34	13.0	9.6	9.1
Xinyi Solar	968 HK	BUY	HK$3.28	HK$4.3	31	2,856	0.19	0.27	0.38	17.3	12.2	7.9

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Sep 22)	TP (12-month)	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
Zoomlion Heavy	1157 HK	BUY	HK$3.02	HK$3.14	4	541	0.01	-0.04	0.05	241.7	N.A.	44.3
CRRC	1766 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$7.39	HK$6.25	-15	26,014	0.43	0.47	0.52	13.8	12.7	11.2
Lonking	3339 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$1.2	HK$1.16	-3	663	0.03	0.05	0.06	32.0	19.4	20.0
CRRC Times Electric	3898 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$42.0	HK$44.2	5	6,366	2.52	2.57	2.94	13.3	13.2	12.0
CRSC	3969 HK	BUY	HK$6.02	HK$7.58	26	6,825	0.32	0.37	0.46	18.8	16.3	9.4
CEEC	3996 HK	BUY	HK$1.16	HK$1.42	22	4,492	0.19	0.16	0.18	6.1	7.3	6.4
Sany Heavy	631 HK	SELL	HK$1.19	HK$1.44	21	467	0.02	0.07	0.10	47.6	13.7	14.1

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Sep 22)	TP (12-month)	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
3SBio	1530 HK	BUY	HK$8.59	HK$12.0	40	2,787	0.25	0.34	0.43	34.4	25.3	20.0
HEC Pharm	1558 HK	BUY	HK$18.0	HK$20.0	11	524	0.86	1.09	1.36	16.8	13.3	11.8
Trad Chi Med	570 HK	BUY	HK$3.97	HK$4.0	1	2,195	0.17	0.21	0.24	18.7	15.3	11.5
Sinco	6833 HK	BUY	HK$0.58	HK$1.0	72	121	0.07	0.08	0.11	8.3	7.3	5.8
China Medical System	867 HK	BUY	HK$13.92	HK$14.0	1	4,466	0.40	0.54	0.68	27.9	20.8	15.2
China Biologic Products	CBPO US	BUY	US$125.22	US$149.0	19	3,216,276	3.68	4.28	4.97	34.0	29.3	20.3

Company	Ticker	Rating	Share Price (Sep 22)	TP (12-month)	% Upside	Market Cap (US$mn)	EPS 2015	EPS 2016E	EPS 2017E	P/E 2015	P/E 2016E	P/E 2017E
AIA	1299 HK	BUY	HK$51.4	HK$...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...

2016/09/23:
- 0159 HK: Brockman Mining Ltd. - FIN RES (Y.E.30/06/16)
- 0565 HK: Art Textile Technology International Co. Ltd. - ANN RES/FIN DIV (Y.E.30/06/16)
- 0682 HK: Chaoda Modern (Holdings) Ltd. - ANN RES (Y.E.30/06/16)
- 0721 HK: China Financial International Investments Ltd. - RES/FIN DIV (Y.E.30/06/16)
- 1142 HK: Siberian Mining Group Co. Ltd. - ANN RES/FIN DIV (Y.E.31/03/16)

展开完整摘要