20250622-国泰期货-原木周度报告_20页_2mb

Overview: The report highlights the current state of the Chinese wood market, noting that wood prices showed slight strength in June, with a slight increase in the LG2507 futures contract. Supply is robust, with strong shipments from New Zealand, and inventories remain elevated, potentially indicating market pressure. Overall, fundamentals have minor changes, with some easing in shipping surcharges.

Supply: New Zealand is the primary source, with 17 ships departed in June, 13 targeted to China, carrying an estimated 151,000 m³ of wood by mid-June. This supply is expected to fuel arrivals, maintaining a steady flow.

Demand and Inventory: Inventories at major ports like Lianyungang and Tangshan are high, with average daily shipments not matching demand, suggesting possible inventory build-up. Inventories decreased slightly from three weeks ago but remain substantial.

Prices and Trends: Wood spot and futures prices rose marginally, with the LG2507 contract up 5.8% week-over-week. Price spreads indicate minor changes, while inventories, particularly in radiation pine, are affecting market balance. Downstream sawmilling prices show small variations between regions and tree species.

Other Factors: Market indicators like the Baltic Dry Index fell by 14.2%, signaling reduced shipping costs. Currency stability, with dollar fluctuations minimal, also supports steady market conditions.