20150916-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_12页_711kb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of stock market updates and analyses for various regions and companies as of Wednesday, 16 September 2015. It includes company-specific updates, financial data, stock performance, and analyst recommendations.

Main Updates

China: Geely Auto (175 HK)

Company Update: Geely's August wholesale shipments were in line with expectations at 31,754 units, with a 14.7% year-over-year increase and 7.4% month-over-month increase, driven by new models. However, retail sales fell short of wholesale shipments due to weak demand for old models, leading to a rise in channel inventory days from 60 to 80.
Earnings Forecast: 2015 EPS was cut by 4% due to lower sales of old models.
Target Price: Revised from HK$4.60 to HK$3.80, reflecting a 15% upside.
Stock Impact: Management expects GC9 sales to reach 5,000 units in 4Q15. Geely will launch five new models through 2016, including two SUVs, which are expected to be popular due to good value for money.
Valuation: Current valuation is 10.5x 2015F PE and 8.1x 2016F PE. The analyst maintains a BUY recommendation.

Singapore: Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

Company Update: SIA and SilkAir showed broad-based improvement in load factors. SIA's load factors increased in Europe and the US, while SilkAir's load factors were highest for the year due to strong performance in East and West Asia.
Earnings Forecast: No change to FY16 net profit estimates.
Target Price: Upgraded to HOLD with a target price of S$10.70.
Stock Impact: Improved load factors may offset expected yield declines. A weaker Singapore dollar could positively impact 2QFY16 earnings.
Valuation: SIA is trading close to -1SD of its long-term mean. The suggested entry price is S$9.60.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	16599.9	1.4	0.6	-5.0	-6.9
S&P 500	1978.1	1.3	0.4	-5.4	-3.9
FTSE 100	6137.6	0.9	-0.1	-6.3	-6.5
AS30	5046.6	-1.4	-1.7	-5.8	-6.3
CSI 300	3152.2	-3.9	-5.5	-22.6	-10.8
FSSTI	2841.9	-1.0	-0.4	-8.7	-15.5
HSI	21455.2	-0.5	0.9	-10.6	-9.1
JCI	4347.2	-1.0	0.7	-5.2	-16.8
KLCI	1647.2	0.5	3.8	3.2	-6.5
KOSPI	1937.6	0.3	3.1	-2.3	1.1
Nikkei 225	18026.5	0.3	3.4	-12.1	3.3
SET	1370.7	-0.5	-0.6	-3.1	-8.5
TWSE	8260.0	-0.6	3.2	-0.5	-11.3
BDI	802	-0.4	-8.1	-24.0	2.6
CPO (RM/mt)	2054	1.6	6.8	3.9	-10.6
Brent Crude	48	0.8	-3.6	-2.6	-16.7

Top Picks (BUY)

Company	Ticker	Current Price	Target Price	Pot. +/- (%)
Beijing Capital	694 HK	HK$7.53	HK$11.40	51.4
ICBC	1398 HK	HK$4.73	HK$7.60	60.7
Bank BJB	BJB IJ	Bt680.00	Bt980.00	44.1
DiGi.Com	DIGI MK	Bt5.50	Bt6.30	14.5
Maybank	MAY MK	Bt8.57	Bt10.00	16.7
CapitaLand	CAPL SP	Bt2.77	Bt4.08	47.3
DBS	DBS SP	Bt17.49	Bt23.75	35.8
Kasikornbank	KBANK TB	Bt178.50	Bt232.00	30.0
PTT	PTT TB	Bt247.00	Bt410.00	66.0

Key Assumptions

Metric	2013	2014F	2015F
US GDP (% yoy)	2.2	2.4	2.5
Euro Zone GDP	-0.5	0.9	1.3
Japan GDP	1.6	-0.1	1.0
Singapore GDP	4.4	2.9	2.5
Malaysia GDP	4.7	6.0	4.8
Thailand GDP	2.8	0.9	2.7
Indonesia GDP	5.6	5.0	5.0
Hong Kong*	3.5	1.8	1.5
China*	7.2	6.5	6.7

Metric	2014	2015F	2016F
Brent (Avg)	99.45	61	67
CPO	722	765	788

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Start Date	End Date
Deleum Bhd Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	17 Sep	17 Sep
Genting Singapore Luncheon	Singapore	18 Sep	18 Sep
China Traditional Chinese Medicine Roadshow	Hong Kong	24 Sep	24 Sep
Far East Consortium Roadshow	Toronto	8 Oct	8 Oct
Far East Consortium Roadshow	Montreal	9 Oct	9 Oct
Asian Gems Conference	Singapore	12 Oct	13 Oct

Key Metrics (Geely Auto)

Metric	2014	2015F	2016F	2017F
Net margin (%)	10.0	9.0	9.4	9.5
EBITDA margin (%)	15.6	15.3	14.8	14.4
ROE (%)	19.8	12.4	14.1	14.2
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%)	-28.1	-37.7	-25.5	-26.3

Key Metrics (Singapore Airlines)

Metric	2015	2016F	2017F	2018F
Net margin (%)	2.4	2.0	3.0	3.9
ROE (%)	2.7	2.3	3.5	4.6
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%)	-31.6	-28.7	-23.7	-8.2

Analyst Contact

Geely Auto: Ken Lee, +852 2236-6760, ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk
Singapore Airlines: K Ajith (+65 6590 6627), Sophie Leong (+65 6590 6621)

Summary of Key Points

Geely Auto:
- August wholesale shipments were as expected, driven by new models.
- Channel inventory increased due to weak demand for old models.
- 2015 EPS cut by 4%, but long-term growth remains positive.
- Target price cut to HK$3.80, but BUY recommendation remains.
Singapore Airlines:
- Load factors improved for both SIA and SilkAir.
- No change in FY16 net profit estimates.
- Upgraded to HOLD due to yields being priced in.
- Target price remains at S$10.70.
Market Indices:
- Mixed performance across global indices, with some showing positive growth and others negative.
- Asian indices showed more volatility compared to Western indices.
Corporate Events:
- A series of events planned in September and October 2015, including roadshows and conferences.
Analyst Insights:
- Emphasis on Geely's strong product pipeline and SIA's load factor improvements.
- Consideration of currency movements and inventory levels in stock valuation.

Conclusion

The report highlights positive outlooks for both Geely Auto and Singapore Airlines, despite short-term challenges. Geely Auto's performance is influenced by its inventory levels and new model launches, while Singapore Airlines is expected to benefit from improved load factors and potential currency movements. Analysts maintain a BUY stance for Geely and have upgraded SIA to HOLD, indicating a cautious but positive outlook.

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